234
FXUS62 KGSP 290122
AFDGSP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
922 PM EDT Sun Apr 28 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
The warming trend will continue through mid week as high pressure
remains centered just off the Atlantic Coast. A weak cold front is
expected to move through the area on Tuesday bringing scattered
showers and thunderstorms. A stronger front is expected to approach
the Carolinas by late week and bring more showers and thunderstorms
to the area.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 920 PM EDT Sunday: Cloud cover has dissipated across most
locations this evening, but remains in place across extreme NE GA
and in southern Greenwood County. No major changes were needed as
the forecast remains on track.

Otherwise, heights will fall across the region during the near
term...especially the latter half of the period, as upper ridge axis
progresses to the East Coast...downstream of a trough axis advancing
east of the Miss River on Monday. As deep layer ridging moves east
of the area tonight into Monday, low level flow is forecast to
become increasingly SW, which is expected to result in less cloud
cover tonight into Monday. Decent radiational cooling conditions
should follow tonight, and min temps are expected to cool to just
slightly-above-climo. Elevated near-surface moisture could allow for
some patchy fog development, particularly in the climatologically
favorable locations in the mountain valleys. Sunnier conditions
combined with increasing thickness values should allow max temps on
Monday to warm to around 5 degrees above normal.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 1:45 PM EDT Sunday: Upper ridge over the East Coast will still
be in place as we move into the short term, with the trough that has
been causing all the problems in the Southern Plains lifting and
damping as it pushes east. Occluded front will approach the
Appalachians at the start of the period, weakening on the southern
end as it competes with the hefty ridge. Pops move into western
zones before daybreak and ramp up during the afternoon hours,
especially over the mountains, but the high elevations really tears
the low level features of the front up. Very little deep layer shear
to work with (not even 30kt collocated with the best instability)
and even the more unstable NAM keeps SBCAPE less than 1000 J/kg. So
for now, general thunder looks good, but can`t rule out that one or
two may be stronger to marginally severe. Temps should be several
degrees above normal on Tuesday with southerly flow still around the
surface high off the Atlantic, even with the shortwave and front
coming through.

The shortwave passes through quickly and ridging builds right back
in on the back edge. Under full sun, temperature will climb a few
degrees higher for highs on Wednesday, probably a good 10 or
so degrees warmer than seasonal normals.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 2:15 PM EDT Sunday: Upper ridge is still in place as we move
into the extended Wednesday night into Thursday, with another
shortwave diving out of the Rockies into the Plains. Increasing
disagreement in how this system is handled in the global models, but
general picture shows another front pushing across the center of the
country Thursday and towards our area Friday. Should see another
uptick in temperatures on Thursday as the ridge strengthens, with
pops moving back in on Friday. For now this front looks a little
stronger than the early-week front, at least as far as instability
goes, so this will have to be monitored in case this trend holds in
future runs.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: VFR and dry across the terminals through the
00Z TAF foreast period thanks to the western periphery of a sfc high
extending into the Carolinas. Patchy fog may develop across the
mountain valleys overnight into daybreak Monday, but confidence is
very low on whether this will reach KAVL. Winds this evening into
the overnight hours will remain S`ly before turning more SW`ly
around daybreak. Winds will turn more S`ly throughout Monday. Wind
speeds should range from 3-6 kts this evening into tonight, becoming
5-10 kts on Monday. Low-end gusts are possible, especially at KHKY,
Monday afternoon. Afternoon cumulus should develop again on Monday,
especially at KAND.

Outlook: A frontal system could bring a round of showers and storms
to the area on Tuesday, with more of a potential for isolated
diurnal convection on Wednesday and Thursday. The next front could
bring better coverage of showers and storms on Friday.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JDL
NEAR TERM...AR/JDL
SHORT TERM...TDP
LONG TERM...TDP
AVIATION...AR