328
FXUS63 KICT 010803
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
303 AM CDT Wed May 1 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered showers/storms expected this morning

- Confidence growing for severe storms west of I-135 & south of I-70

- The active weather pattern continues into next week

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 305 AM CDT Wed May 1 2024

As of 3 AM Wednesday morning, predominately zonal midlevel flow has
resumed across the Plains with the remnant shortwave trough
advancing into western Great Lakes region. Further west, the next
shortwave trough was approaching the central Rockies. Closer to home,
an outflow boundary from the cluster of thunderstorms that pushed
through much of south central and southeast KS Tuesday evening has
stalled across northern OK. Strong WAA between 850 and 700 mb was
advancing northward through western OK and the Panhandle. This WAA
continues to generate convection on the western flank of the outflow
boundary. Looking at VWP trends from ICT depict the low-level flow
is beginning to veer to the south. This should expand the zone of
low-level WAA into portions of central and south central KS later
this morning. As such, widely scattered showers and storms can be
expected through mid to late morning. As this axis moves northward,
the convection across northern OK should gradually dissipate. The
rate of dissipation will play a pivotal role in the easterly extent
of severe thunderstorm potential. Latest short range deterministic
and ensemble guidance suggest the northern OK convection will
dissipate shortly after sunrise. This will allow the near-surface
moisture to retreat northward with the warm front. Showers and
storms are likely to continue for much of the morning and afternoon
to the north of the warm front. This activity should act to
reinforce the thermal gradient along its axis. By 4 PM, the warm
front is progged to be positioned near/just south of I-70. The
triple point will reside near/just southwest of Great Bend with a
dryline extending southward towards Pratt. Occasional breaks in the
cloud cover should allow for sufficient surface heating to
erode inhibition along the dryline. While overall large scale
forcing for ascent will remain meager through the
afternoon/evening, convergence along the dryline should promote
convective initiation along this zone from Great Bend to Pratt
and southward from there. Hodographs remain favorable for
supercell structures with good veering and sufficient speed
shear. Instability will be quite plentiful (3000- 4000 J/kg)
with steep midlevel lapse rates near 9C overlapping a moist
boundary layer (meanW approaching 14 g/kg). As such, any
supercell structure will be capable of very large hail up to
baseball size and damaging winds up to 70 mph. The greatest risk
for a tornado appears to emerge from the triple point near
Great Bend and northeastward along the warm front. Surface winds
along the warm front will remain more-back, contributing to
effective SRH values of 200-300 M2/S2. Any storm that develops
in this zone should have a prolonged residence time with RM
supercell motion largely parallel to the warm front.

As the shortwave trough across the Rockies approaches the Plains
tonight, the surface low will advance northeastward, taking the bulk
of precipitation northward as well. The main surface trough axis
will slide through the forecast area through the day Thursday. More
shower and thunderstorm activity is expected along/ahead of the
front. While a severe storm cannot be ruled out, an overall lack of
deep layer shear (25-30 kt) should mitigate that threat. The active
weather pattern looks to continue into the weekend with a series of
shortwave trough axis` ejecting into the Plains. Taking a peek into
next week, shear and instability may overlap Monday for the next
chance for severe storms. Stay tuned.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1228 AM CDT Wed May 1 2024

Easterly component surface flow will prevail most of the night
in the wake of the convection just south of the Kansas/Oklahoma
border. Elevated southerly return flow will increase toward dawn
as the frontal boundary begins to return north as a warm front.
This could initiate scattered convection across southern Kansas
during the post-sunrise hours later this morning. This is also
expected to promote developmental stratus cigs with high
confidence on lower end MVFR and possible IFR. Focus for
convection should shift northward with the warm front into
central Kansas during the afternoon with some development south
into the warm sector across south central Kansas, some of which
will be severe.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch until noon CDT today for KSZ069>072-093>096-
098>100.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BMB
AVIATION...KED