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000
FXUS62 KILM 200150
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
950 PM EDT Fri Apr 19 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Showers and thunderstorms across the area this afternoon could
produce a briefly strong wind gust or large hail. A cold front
stalls near the area this weekend, maintaining elevated rain
chances, mainly Sunday and Sunday night. High pressure next
week leads to drying conditions once more, with a gradual
warming trend.

&&

.UPDATE...
Little change this update. Still small potential for a few
showers and isolated thunder overnight. Most areas will remain
dry.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Deep convection in the very near term should taper off to just
showers with the loss of daytime heating this evening. Tough to
say with what coverage showers continue overnight as the current
activity isn`t being handled too well. But given the approach
of a cold front have carried some minor POPs til about midnight.
Areas of fog then expected overnight (according to some
guidance but not all) seemingly most likely in areas that see
rainfall. Coastal areas may also be favored as some sea fog may
develop. Saturday will be our last warm day ahead of the front
with highs in the mid 80s away from the immediate coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
A cold front will be in the process of pushing offshore
Saturday night. Developing low pressure along with front will
produce showers across the nearshore waters, spreading northward
toward the coast overnight. Ejecting shortwave and falling
heights will allow the surface low to deepen on Sunday morning
with widespread rain expected to engulf the area by noon.

Isentropic lift peaks during the afternoon and stratiform rain
increases in intensity. Heaviest rain will likely be inland. The
low deepens offshore on Sunday evening as it interacts with the
Gulf Stream and the heavier rain transitions to the NC coast.
Rain gradually comes to an end late Sunday night as the front
gets dragged farther offshore by the exiting low. Daytime high
temperatures on Sunday will be well below normal due to cool
air advection and evaporative cooling. High temperatures are
trending downward with the latest forecast, but the current
highs in the upper 50s and low 60s could continue to decrease in
future forecast issuances. It is possible that some areas could
struggle to get out of the low 50s.

Rainfall totals at present reflect some uncertainty in the exact
track of the low and intensity of isentropic lift. The majority
of the area can expect up to around a half an inch of rain. Some
areas of higher totals are possible with the GFS indicating
that the I-95 corridor and coastal NC could see around an inch
of total rainfall through Monday morning due to maximized
isentropic lift and strengthening offshore low, respectively.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
High confidence that a cold front will be positioned well
offshore by Monday morning and the entirety of the area will be
entrenched in a cold air mass (by late April`s standard). An
upper low traversing the southern Appalachian region moving
east towards South Carolina will likely bring light showers
Monday afternoon and Monday evening. The low will be moving
quickly and dry air following the trough axis should bring an
end to rain chances rather quickly.

Uncertainty in the position and speed of the shortwave does
exist and it may still be too early to say for certain that
Monday will be unsettled. Regardless, expect cool temperatures
to continue, moreso if afternoon showers develop. Highs only in
the low or mid 60s (nearly 10-15 degrees below climo).

Dry air following the shortwave, high pressure settling overhead
on Monday night, and cool air in place will allow overnight lows
to drop well into the 40s. Areas west of I-95 will be close to
the upper 30s. No frost or freeze products anticipated. Clouds
near the coast in NE flow may develop and keep temperatures
warmer near the coast.

Low pressure exiting the region and high pressure building over
the central US will bring drier conditions for the remainder of
next week. Below normal temperatures and clear skies should
make for a pleasant Tuesday. Cool overnight with low temps in
the upper 40s and lower 50s. Warmer on Wednesday ahead of the
next cold front. This front will bring cooler temps for
Thursday, but transient high pressure positioned well north of
the area will keep the cooler air locked to the north and allow
highs to reach the mid 70s. Ridging and offshore high pressure
bring a warming trend on Friday through next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
IFR has been persistent at coastal terminals for much of the
afternoon and evening.  As yet, this has been limited to the Grand
Strand and ILM.  Winds are expected to become more southerly then
southwesterly overnight along the coast, admittedly at speeds of 5
KT or less. Based on this, we show cigs at coastal terminals
improving to VFR overnight as the.  This could be a slow process.
mechanism creating the IFR cigs shuts down.  It should be noted that
some guidance shows IFR cigs developing at all terminals overnight
but this seems unlikely given recent history.

Extended Outlook... Restrictions possible through the weekend
due to daily shower chances from a stalled front. High pressure
building in late Mon into Tues should return dominant VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Saturday... Southerly component to return from S to N
this evening as backdoor boundary lifts to the north and another
front approaches from the west. Wind speeds will remain capped
at 10kt for the most part meaning small wind waves while the
similarly small SE swell continues.

Saturday Night through Wednesday Night... Light and variable
winds on Saturday night as a cold front pushes offshore will
become breezy NE flow on Sunday. Developing surface low offshore
on Sunday will see winds increase to 15-20 knots. As the low
strengthens, gusts up to 25 knots are possible Sunday night and
early Monday. The prolonged fetch of NE winds could create wind
waves up to 4-5 feet on Monday as a secondary low develops near
the coast.

NE winds continue early next week behind the exiting low and
high pressure settling overhead. Winds and seas return to 15
knots or below. SW winds return on Wednesday ahead of the next
cold front.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ILM
UPDATE...31
NEAR TERM...MBB
SHORT TERM...21
LONG TERM...21
AVIATION...31
MARINE...MBB/21