Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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FXUS63 KIWX 270941
AFDIWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
541 AM EDT Wed Mar 27 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

-Temperatures will be seasonably cool temperatures into
 Thursday, returning to above normal for the remainder of the
 period.

-Low confidence on chances for measurable rainfall Fri night into
 Saturday.

-Slightly better confidence on measurable rainfall early next
 week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 324 AM EDT Wed Mar 27 2024

The base of a southern stream longwave trough will continue to push
east across the Gulf states, removing any meaningful moisture to
essentially the eastern half of the US for the next several days. A
northern stream closed low, currently located over Minnesota, will
deepen in response to a 140 + kt jet streak. The upper low will slow
somewhat as it deepens but eventually reach southern Hudson Bay by
00Z Fri. Until this departs, the area will be dominated by dry, but
more seasonably cool conditions (highs today in the 40s and then
moderating somewhat Thu/Fri. While winds will continue to slowly
diminish overnight, diurnally driven increases will occur over the
next couple afternoons, but be far less in magnitude then the past
couple of days. Clouds will slowly decrease through the day as well
with mostly clear skies by tonight.

Upper level heights will rise somewhat Friday with a baroclinic
zones taking shape over the area in response to a deepening
southern stream trough over the SW states into the weekend.
Increasing isentropic lift will likely result in an area of rain
developing along and north of the front sometime in the late
Fri night into Sat time frame, but models are varying somewhat
on the specific timing, placement and coverage. Initial rain
chances likely limited much of Friday night, but PWATs slowly
increase to around 0.75" towards Sat AM Given the moisture
return likely to be quite limited at this point (PWATs
0.5-0.75"), suspect coverage and QPF may not be as high as
advertised by some of the models. Will maintain chc to likely
pops in this period, but suspect both pops and QPF may end up
being lowered with time.

The upper level flow will remain rather disjointed over the weekend
into early next week with the southern stream trough remaining
in place with a northern stream upper low taking shape and
moving towards the region mainly into early next week. This will
likely bring increasing chances for rain once again possibly as
early as late Sunday night, but most likely Monday night into
Tuesday. With such low confidence at this juncture of the
forecast, will hold with chc to likely pops, but remove any
mention of cat pops until better confidence hopefully occurs.
Large temperatures fluctuations (still above normal though) are
likely as the baroclinic zone meanders across the southern
Great lakes and northern Ohio valley.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 531 AM EDT Wed Mar 27 2024

Cloud cover was receding rapidly across Iowa as drier air from
the west was helping to erode the stratocu MVFR ceiling. This
clearing will reach the area about the middle of the day with
scattered clouds this afternoon. A deep surface low north of
Lake Superior was causing a tight pressure gradient over
northern Indiana and was still bringing gusty winds to the
terminals early this morning. The pressure gradient will
continue to slacken throughout the day and allow winds to
eventually become light this evening.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
OH...None.
MI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for LMZ043-
     046.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Fisher
AVIATION...Skipper


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