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000
FXUS64 KJAN 212338
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
638 PM CDT Sun Apr 21 2024

...New AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 245 PM CDT Sun Apr 21 2024

Tonight and Tomorrow: Our weather regime has progressed out of
this active pattern as quiet conditions will ensue through the
short term forecast. As the wave continues to push through the
area cloud cover will clear as we head into this evening. We will
continue to see some gusty winds as a result but these winds will
die off by tonight. Overnight low temperatures will be chilly
dropping down to the low - mid 40s. Going into tomorrow a warming
trend will take shape as high pressure begins to build into the
area. We can see temps warm slightly into the mid - upper 60s to
start the work week. /KP/

Monday night through Saturday:Continued cooler than normal and
dry through Wednesday but temperatures will be back to normal by
Thursday morning.

Come Monday evening wl still have northwest flow aloft but the
surface high will be centered just east of Mississippi resulting in
a very light return flow. This return flow will help hold
temperatures up a few degrees Tuesday morning as compared to Monday
morning. The surface high will continue shifting east Tuesday and
Wednesday while a weak cold front tries to drop into our CWA from
the north. Wl see a warming trend and a gradual increase in low
level moisture through Thursday. There are a few models that stall
the cold front a little farther south and generate convection across
our northern most zones Wednesday afternoon and Thursday but
consensus remains dry for our CWA through Thursday night. By Friday
morning the surface ridge will still be nosing into the CWA from the
east while a mid level shortwave ridge axis will be nearly along the
Mississippi/Alabama border. Dry weather now looks to continue
through Friday morning but rain chances will increase from the
northwest Friday afternoon ahead of the next approaching low
pressure system. There remain timing differences with this low
pressure system that will feature a nearly stacked low lifting
northeast through the central and northern Plains. Current thinking
remains that rain chances will begin as ridging surface and aloft
continue to shift east but these features will try to remain stout
across our CWA. This will work to help confine rain chances to the
northern half of the CWA through Saturday. Despite the increase in
cloud cover and rain chances across the north, the warming trend to
above normal temperatures through mid week will last into the
weekend. /22/

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 636 PM CDT Sun Apr 21 2024

VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period. Gusty
northerly surface wind will diminish quickly early this evening.
/EC/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       42  68  44  74 /   0   0   0   0
Meridian      40  69  42  76 /   0   0   0   0
Vicksburg     41  68  44  75 /   0   0   0   0
Hattiesburg   44  70  44  78 /   0   0   0   0
Natchez       42  68  44  76 /   0   0   0   0
Greenville    43  66  46  74 /   0   0   0   0
Greenwood     40  68  45  73 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.

&&

$$

KP/22/EC