National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office

• Home
• Site Map
• News
• Organization
• Search for: NWS All NOAA 

000
FXUS63 KLBF 122318
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
618 PM CDT Fri Apr 12 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Very warm temperatures expected this weekend with highs 15 to 20
degrees above normal.

- Increased fire weather concerns possibly Sunday, more likely on
Monday.

- Thunderstorms possible Monday-Severe threat uncertain at this time.

- Much cooler temperatures expected toward the end of next week
  with a decent threat for precipitation Tuesday through
  Wednesday night.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 333 PM CDT Fri Apr 12 2024

H5 analysis this morning had a broad ridge of high pressure
extending from New Mexico, north into southern portions of
Alberta and Saskatchewan. East of this feature, closed low
pressure was located over the LP of Michigan with a trough
extending south into Georgia. East of this feature, a strong
shortwave was located over the Mid-Atlantic states. West of the
ridge, closed low pressure was located approximately 500 miles
off the coast of northern California. A secondary shortwave was
noted off the coast of Baja California. At the surface, high
pressure was centered over portions of central Nebraska. A
stationary front extended from east central Wyoming, southeast
into southwestern Kansas. West of the high pressure center,
winds were southerly or south-southeasterly this afternoon. Wind
speeds were generally in the 10 to 15 MPH range with some gusts
reaching above 20 MPH. Skies were clear and 3 PM CT
temperatures ranged from 63 degrees at O`Neill to 77 degrees at
Ogallala.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 333 PM CDT Fri Apr 12 2024

Ridging aloft will transition east tonight becoming oriented
from Texas, north into the Dakotas by late evening. Winds will
decouple this evening and remain light across the southern half
of the forecast area tonight. Further north the higher res
models are indicating southerly winds continuing into the
overnight hours from the Sandhills into north central Nebraska.
With this in mind, lows tonight are expected to be warmer in the
northern half of the CWA compared to the southern half.
Readings will range form around 40 in SW Nebraska, to the middle
40s over north central Nebraska. Beginning Saturday morning, a
weak upper level disturbance (currently off the coast of Baja
California) will emerge onto the high plains Saturday morning.
The latest high res model solns do indicate some mid level
moisture (H7- H5) in association with this feature. With
afternoon heating, surface based and H80 LI`s will become
negative across the forecast area. This could lead to an
isolated shower or two developing across the area Saturday
afternoon. ATTM, will leave out a mention of thunder and leave
ptypes as showers only. This is due to a very dry layer, below
700mb. Believe this will be mainly a virga show with little or
now pcpn reaching the ground. That being said, will limit pops
to under 20 percent Saturday afternoon. The weak mid level
disturbance will transition east Saturday night with a ridge
building into the Central Plains. Mild temperatures are expected
with lows in the lower to middle 40s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 333 PM CDT Fri Apr 12 2024

A strong upper level low will track through the central Plains
Monday into Tuesday. In advance of this feature, strong warm air
advection and a dry boundary layer, will lead to near critical
RH values for Sunday afternoon. ATTM, winds are expected to be
in the 10 to 15 MPH range, so red flag conditions are not
anticipated Sunday afternoon. Readings will be very warm with
highs in the lower to middle 80s. The upper level low will lift
into the southern Rockies Monday. Looking at the NAM12 and GFS
solns from this morning along with the EC soln, there are some
significant differences with timing of the H5 low early next
week. Currently the NAM is the most aggressive with the low and
has it located over NE Colorado at 00z Tuesday. The EC and GFS
solns are slower and have the low over SW Colorado at 00z. Why
is this important? The NAM12 soln currently has a more westward
extent of low level moisture Monday afternoon/evening placing
most of the forecast area in 50+ dew points. The EC and GFS
solns have this moisture further east, mainly along and east of
highway 83. All three solns do develop some sort of a dryline
Monday afternoon. With the NAM12 soln, thunderstorms (some
severe) would be possible for most of the forecast area. Support
for severe storms is good with the latest NAM12 soln-ie. strong
mid level shear, 1500+J/KG cape and favorable 0-2 KM AGL
helicities. If the GFS and EC solns verify, this threat would be
mainly over the eastern half of the CWA. The location of the
dryline Monday afternoon will be a good delineation between
critical fire weather conditions (west of this feature) and non-
critical fire weather conditions (east of this feature) as
southerly winds should be fairly strong across the entire
forecast area. In conclusion, forecast confidence in the severe
weather/critical fire weather forecast Monday afternoon/night
right now is fairly low.

The GFS and EC solns lift the H5 low across the Central Plains
Monday night into Tuesday. Decent deformation precipitation will set
up over the eastern half of Nebraska, as the low tracks across
southeastern Nebraska. This favors high precipitation chances over
the eastern forecast area. This system will exit the Central Plains
Tuesday night. On the heels of this system, a northern stream low
will drop south from Saskatchewan into northern Minnesota midweek.
Precipitation will be possible INVOF of a strong cold front
Wednesday night into Thursday. Behind the exiting system Thursday
night into Friday, much colder temperatures are expected with highs
possibly not reaching above 50 degrees and lows in the 20S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 618 PM CDT Fri Apr 12 2024

VFR will continue through the forecast period for western and
north central Nebraska terminals as just mid/high level clouds
stream into the area. Wind will be the main aviation weather
concern going forward as low level wind shear conditions arise
overnight, primarily for the northern terminals (VTN). Near the
surface, southerly winds become west/northwest toward the
afternoon behind a boundary.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Buttler
SHORT TERM...Buttler
LONG TERM...Buttler
AVIATION...Snively