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000
FXUS64 KLCH 140459
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
1159 PM CDT Sat Apr 13 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Monday night)
Issued at 220 PM CDT Sat Apr 13 2024

High pressure centered over southeastern Louisiana and weak
ridging aloft continues to maintain abundant sunshine and very
pleasant airmass across the region this afternoon with
temperatures in the lower 80s and dewpoints in the lower 50s. The
latest high res guidance is again hinting at the possibility of
some patchy fog overnight tonight, primarily across acadiana where
winds look to be somewhat lighter. Current thinking is that winds
will remain elevated enough elsewhere to limit any significant
fog development. Any fog development should be quick to dissipate
after sunrise.

Dewpoints and cloud cover will begin a rebound through the day
Sunday as the pressure gradient increases between the eastward
departing surface high and a shallow frontal boundary moving
across the southern plains. This will yield southerly flow around
15 knots by Sunday afternoon advecting low level moisture back
into the region with dewpoints climbing into the mid 60s. The
southerly flow will increase further Monday as a developing
cyclone on the lee side of the Rockies begins a slow progression
eastward.

Jones

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through next Friday)
Issued at 220 PM CDT Sat Apr 13 2024

By Tuesday, an expansive extratropical cyclone will be progressing
across the central plains dragging a frontal boundary across
Central and East Texas. Sustained winds ahead of the boundary are
expected to increase to between 20-25 knots and should this
forecast verify, a wind advisory will likely be needed for much of
the region Tuesday. Guidance has been struggling with the
progression of the frontal boundary as it stretches and slows
while the cyclone lifts into the Great Lakes. Some of the latest
iterations do allow the boundary to get into parts of southeast
Texas and central Louisiana before stalling and dissipating while
others keep the entire boundary North of the region. A vast
majority of blended guidance, including the NBM, keep PoPs north
of the region so opted to maintain the status quo for now pending
better consistency. Regardless of exactly where the boundary
stalls, it`s dissipation will leave a fairly deep column of
moisture sitting across the northern gulf coast Wednesday into
Thursday which will keep skies overcast above a warm, muggy
airmass at the surface. A second frontal boundary will push
through the region late in the week pushing the tropical airmass
back into the gulf by next weekend.

Jones

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1157 PM CDT Sat Apr 13 2024

VFR and generally SKC continues tonight into tomorrow morning with
some increase in low and mid level clouds expected over SETX by
Sun afternoon. However VFR will prevail through the
afternoon/evening on Sunday. SFC winds will strengthen out of the
south by Sunday late morning into the afternoon. Sustained winds
of 10-16 kts with occasional gust nearing 23 kts possible.

There could be some patchy ground FG along and north of I-10 Sun
morning, but probabilities are rather low and visibility would
only result in very brief MVFR. Currently not in the TAF forecast,
but will monitor through early morning hours.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 220 PM CDT Sat Apr 13 2024

Light onshore flow this afternoon will increase somewhat overnight
as the pressure gradient tightens between an Eastward departing
surface high and an area of low pressure moving across the
southern plains. Onshore winds will strengthen further Monday and
Tuesday as another low pressure forms and deepens over the
Plains. Precipitation chances remain negligible until late in the
week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  55  83  60  84 /   0   0   0   0
LCH  62  79  65  80 /   0   0   0   0
LFT  61  82  65  82 /   0   0   0   0
BPT  63  80  65  81 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...66
LONG TERM....66
AVIATION...78