Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
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782 FXUS64 KLIX 111706 AFDLIX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 1206 PM CDT Sat May 11 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Sunday) Issued at 153 AM CDT Sat May 11 2024 The upper ridging is now starting to drop into the NW CONUS and forcing the upper troughing over the west to begin moving SE and will eventually orient itself more meridionally. The flow over our area has become more zonal and as the upper trough gets a bit closer and orients N-S, it will cause a strong divergent area as it couples with the zonal flow to the south of it. This will set the stage for several disturbances to be produced after today as there will be more upper support for these storms to develop. Not much expected with Sunday`s system as most of it will be to the north of the area. But there is a chance that several locations in our area could see some showers and maybe a Tstorm. The highest chances of rain should be over SW Miss and adjacent parishes of LA during the day. The better chance of rain will come with the first disturbance that moves though overnight Sunday into Monday. Models are having issues resolving the placement, but this should come close enough to the northern portion of the area to get most if not all the area some rain. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday night through Friday) Issued at 153 AM CDT Sat May 11 2024 Small mesoscale distubances will continue to be produced by this upper trough to the west and will have support downstream as there will be plenty of upper divergent flow due to the interaction between the upper trough and the old zonal flow over the gulf south that will now start to buckle into an upper ridge pattern over the eastern gulf into FL. The problem with each of these disturbances is to find where they will be each day so we will know which areas will most likely get storms and watering. Each one of these will need to be closely monitored for the production of severe storms and heavy rainfall. We are fairly sure of the heavy rainfall picture and this could be a daily or every other day event through the week. Even though these storms will be transitory, the more they move over, the more saturation will occur and then won`t take much to cause some flooding with strong rain rates. Models will have disagreements with each other concerning these small systems. So we will need to see where they initialize and use those models that have the initialization correct. The second one after Sunday night looks to move rapidly east Monday after initializing near or south of Austin Tx Monday morning and be near or over our area by Monday evening after sunset. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1205 PM CDT Sat May 11 2024 VFR conditions prevail at all area airports and will persist through the forecast period. Wind shifts greater than 30 degrees will be expected at all area airports throughout the forecast period. MSW && .MARINE... Issued at 153 AM CDT Sat May 11 2024 A cold front will settle over the northern gulf today. Small craft advisories will be for a short time this morning and should lower by mid morning. Winds will ease through the day today and remain that way through Sunday morning. Winds will then begin to rise from the SE to around 15-20kt as the old boundary starts to move north. Strong/severe storms along with widespread strong winds will be possible Monday through Tuesday as disturbances move over the northern gulf. There is a possiblity that strong disturbances impact the northern gulf waters through the week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... MCB 61 79 64 81 / 10 20 60 90 BTR 67 85 71 86 / 10 30 60 80 ASD 66 84 70 84 / 10 10 50 90 MSY 72 84 73 85 / 10 20 50 80 GPT 66 83 70 82 / 10 10 50 90 PQL 64 85 68 83 / 0 0 40 90 && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. GM...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...TE LONG TERM....TE AVIATION...MSW MARINE...TE