060
FXUS63 KLMK 151910
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
310 PM EDT Wed May 15 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

*   Showers and thunderstorms this afternoon/evening with small hail
    gusty winds. Diminishing this evening.

*   Patchy dense fog possible late overnight into early morning.

*   Widespread showers and storms Friday into Saturday, with gusty
    winds and heavy rain possible in the stronger storms late Friday
    and Friday night.

*   Dry and very warm Sunday and Monday.

*   Rain chances return Tuesday and Wednesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 310 PM EDT Wed May 15 2024

Sfc low and associated upper trough will continue to work eastward
this afternoon and evening towards the Mid-Atlantic coast. Model
soundings show instability this afternoon but very little shear with
mid-level weak mid-level lapse rates. We can see an area of showers
and thunderstorms working from the north-northeast out of southern
IN towards north central KY. This activity will be around through
the rest of the afternoon into the early evening. Storms will remain
sub severe with small hail and a few wind gusts.

Upper level ridge will build in from the west tonight into tomorrow
along with a weak area of sfc high pressure. This will allow for
precipitation to diminish with the loss of daytime heating and allow
clouds to clear as we go overnight. With clearing and lingering low-
level moisture patchy dense fog is possible thanks to all the rain
the last couple of days and cooling temperatures. Many of the models
also strongly suggest that fog is a possibility across most of the
CWA so feel confident about dense fog developing. Lows will fall
into the mid/upper 50s with our urban locations near 60.

As ridging builds and high pressure moves in we will get a break
from the rain with even some sunshine tomorrow. While it is expected
to be brief it will help to warm temperatures to near 80. Clouds
will start to increase towards the afternoon as a mid-level vort max
works in ahead of the approaching shortwave trough. This will also
increase shower storm chances from the west late afternoon and
towards evening.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 310 PM EDT Wed May 15 2024

Upper trof will kick out of eastern New Mexico and western Texas
Thursday night, crossing the Ozarks on Friday night and finally
pushing through the Ohio Valley late Saturday. Widrespread showers
and storms are expected, mainly Friday afternoon into Friday night
with a healthy Gulf moisture feed pushing PWATs to around 1.5
inches. Severe wx potential is low given modest instability and weak
mid-level lapse rates, but deep-layer shear does increase after 00Z
Sat. The main hazard will be brief locally heavy rainfall, which
could result in ponding or localized minor flooding.  However, a few
strong to severe storms can`t be ruled out if enough sfc-based
instability hangs on to overlap with the increasing shear.

Most likely dry days will be Sunday and Monday under shortwave upper
ridging. Temps will be quite warm both days with highs well into the
80s. Rain chances return Tuesday and Wednesday as an upper trof digs
into the Plains, with some degree of phasing possible.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 144 PM EDT Wed May 15 2024

Sfc low is currently working eastward out of eastern KY towards the
east coast. BKN cloud cover with a wide variety of flight categories
from MVFR, VFR to even IFR as have scattering of showers and
possibly a few thunderstorms developing north of the Ohio River.
This activity will continue to pinwheel around the low and work from
the north to the south. At times there will be gusty winds,
lightning and gusty winds through at least sunset. Activity will
diminish this evening from the northwest to the southeast. Skies
will briefly clear and VFR conditions will return but with clearing,
low stratus and even some patchy fog is possible in the predawn
hours. There seems to be a lot of model consensus of low VIS with
the clearing skies and the low-level moisture. Could see some IFR
conditions especially for BWG to RGA.. Then clearing and drier for
tomorrow once the fog mixes and lifts out with VFR conditions.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BTN
LONG TERM...RAS
AVIATION...BTN