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000
FXUS64 KLUB 161940
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
240 PM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 231 PM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024

Deamplification of the mid/upper-level flow is underway across the
region as the vertically-stacking lows over the east-central Great
Plains rotate into the Upper Midwest. The CWA remains within the dry
slot of the departing system with only a few narrow bands of cirrus
advecting northeastward along the northern periphery of the
subtropical jet stream arcing into southwestern Texas. At the
surface, low-end windy conditions in wake of the Pacific cold front
will continue through dusk, with winds diminishing thereafter as a
secondary, weaker front moves in from the TX PH. Light and variable
winds are expected tonight as the front stalls across the Caprock
and Rolling Plains, though winds should predominately prevail out of
the southwest across most of the South Plains. Cross-barrier flow
aloft will maintain lee cyclogenesis to the northwest of the CWA
tomorrow afternoon, with an expectation for the high-level cirrus
shield to eclipse the southern portions of the CWA tomorrow before
shifting off to the east as a shallow, low-amplitude trough pivots
across northern Mexico. Breezy, west-southwesterly winds; full
insolation, and near-superadiabatic low-level lapse rates beneath
neutralizing geopotential heights will cause temperatures to soar
into the upper 80s/lower 90s across most of the CWA with the
exception of the extreme southern TX PH where highs in the middle
80s are forecast. High temperatures were raised a few degrees and
trended towards the upper-bound of statistical guidance given the
latter thinking.

Sincavage

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through next Monday)
Issued at 231 PM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024

An upper low across Canada with a jet across the Northern Plains and
a shortwave across western Mexico will bring westerly flow over the
forecast area. A lee low will develop tomorrow night across
southwest Kansas and push eastward through Thursday. A cold front
will swing south through the forecast area during the daytime hours
Thursday. Temperatures will remain a bit cooler across the northern
zones following the frontal boundary with northerly surface winds
and highs in the 70s. Ahead of the front temperatures will warm
nicely through the afternoon into the 80s. Little moisture will be
present with this shallow cold front, thus skies will remain mostly
clear with a few high clouds. Thursday night the frontal boundary
will stall across the Permian Basin near Midland with the shallow
cooler airmass remaining present Friday. Easterly surface winds will
bring low level moisture into the area with low clouds developing
overnight and continuing into Friday. Temperatures will be nearly 20
degrees cooler Friday with the shallow cool airmass in place behind
the stalled frontal boundary.

Another shortwave trough will enter the Desert Southwest Friday
evening with southwesterly flow returning aloft and increased
midlevel moisture. Meanwhile, the surface high across the Northern
Plains will dig southward across the Plains Friday night into
Saturday with a reinforcement of cold air. The low level moisture in
place will remain with continued low clouds into Saturday.
Temperatures will cool around 700mb with soundings showing a
saturated profile to the surface and therefore increased rain
chances Saturday morning. PWATs are around an inch, which is near
the 90th percentile for this time of year. Thus, rain showers and
thunderstorms are possible with localized heavy rainfall and
localized flooding concerns. Model probabilities have about a 30 to
60 percent chance of half an inch of precipitation across much of
the forecast area Friday night into Saturday. Additionally, there is
about a 30 percent chance for greater than one inch of rainfall
across the southern South Plains. Elevated thunderstorms are also
possible, with the main threat being lightning with limited
instability. Temperatures will remain nearly 20 degrees below normal
Saturday with the overcast skies and rainy conditions. Current
forecast high for Lubbock, Texas is 55 degrees with the record for
the coldest maximum temperature being also 55 degrees set back in
1923.

Heading into Saturday night, rain chances will significantly
decrease with the passing shortwave aloft. Low clouds will continue
to linger Sunday with temperatures remaining cool and below normal
in the 50s. Weak ridging will build to the west as the surface high
continues to dig into southern Texas and southerly surface winds
return to the forecast area by early next week. Temperature will
gradually warm to near normal in the 70s across the area.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1211 PM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024

Windy conditions will continue at KCDS, KLBB, and KPVW for the
rest of the afternoon with gusts to 30-35 kt expected at all
terminals. Significant cross winds on RWY 17/35 at KLBB will
occur. Westerly winds will diminish and become variable as a weak
front moves into the region tonight, though light winds should
primarily be out of the southwest at KLBB. Check density altitude.

Sincavage

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...09
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...09