748
FXUS64 KLZK 040537
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1237 AM CDT Sat May 4 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 145 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024

Currently, showers and thunderstorms have since weakened and/or
pushed out of the CWA. Rain chances still prevail across portions of
eastern and southeastern Arkansas. CAMs shows the possibility of
additional pop-up showers and thunderstorms over portions of
southern and northern Arkansas later this afternoon. Coverage is
expected to be spotty and should dissipate shortly after sunset.

The pattern is expected to remain somewhat unsettled through the
short term as weak disturbances push through the state. The next
best chance of rain and thunderstorms will return Saturday afternoon
as a weak shortwave moves across the state bringing the possibility
of afternoon thunderstorms. The threat for severe weather appears to
remain low at this time.

Sunday brings a better chance of widespread rain across the state as
another disturbance moves through. Rain is likely across western
locations Sunday morning pushing from southwest to northeast
across the state through Sunday evening. Once again, severe
weather is expected to remain on the low end...however, gusty
winds and small hail cannot be ruled out with these storms.

Overall, QPF could be up to a half an inch across much of the state
with some areas possibly seeing between one to two inches
depending where the strongest storms pop-up.

Temperatures are expected to be warmest on Saturday with highs in
the mid 70s to mid 80s. High temperatures on Sunday are expected to
drop into the 70s. Overnight low temperatures are expected to be in
the low to mid 60s through the period.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday Night through next Friday)
Issued at 145 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024

SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY/TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY:

An unsettled weather pattern takes hold into the day on Monday and
will remain in place for much of the long-term forecast period. On
Monday an upper lvl negatively tilted trof axis approaches the
Central Plains region of the CONUS in conjunction with a sfc low
pressure center positioned across the Northern Plains region of the
CONUS with an attendant southward extending cold front and dryline
that will initiate storms on Monday. A parameter space of strong
southerly sfc flow which will advect warm air temperatures and
appreciable dewpoint temperatures into the state setting the table
for the possibility of severe weather across much of the state will
take place. The SPC (Storm Prediction Center) has already outlined a
slight risk for severe weather across portions of the CWA with
possible upgrades to come in future outlooks closer to Tuesday.
Expect the possibility of all modes of severe weather to be possible
on Tuesday. It will become clearer in future forecast
packages/discussion exactly what the main weather hazards will be,
but the parameter space across the CWA will be primed for all
hazards of severe weather.

Into Tuesday, an upper lvl closed low positions over the Northern
Plains region of the CONUS with a pronounced southern stream of
which will include a 70 to 80 knot jet axis will be present over the
state. At the sfc, the same parameter space will exist from Monday
with the addition of upper lvl dynamics in place and closer sfc lvl
features including: a localized low pressure center across Oklahoma
and attendant southward extending dryline with a cold front
approaching from the northwest as a result from the parent sfc low
pressure center fixated across the Northern Plains region of the
CONUS. Again, the SPC (Storm Prediction Center), on Wednesday has
outlined a slight risk for severe weather which includes a large
portion of the state of Arkansas. Expect a second round of severe
weather on Wednesday, with this severe weather threat looking to be
a larger area that includes most of the CWA. Expect the possibility
of all modes of severe weather to be possible on Wednesday. It will
become clearer in future forecast packages/discussion exactly what
the main weather hazards will be, but the region across the CWA and
most of the state will be suspect to all hazards of severe weather.

THURSDAY/NEXT FRIDAY:

A series of multiple Sits move over Arkansas during this period in
tandem with a cold front that begins to move across the state on
Thursday into Next Friday. Expect several rounds of rain and
thunderstorms over this three day period of unsettled weather. It
remains to be determined if the ingredients will be in place to pose
a threat for severe weather.

Over the period in terms of temperatures, with respect to both low
and high temperatures will be 5 to 10 degrees above normal compared
to climatological normals over the same timeframe.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1228 AM CDT Sat May 4 2024

A couple locations were hovering near or at MVFR CIGs, otherwise
most locations were VFR as of 06z. Some patchy FG/low stratus is
expected to develop and impact area terminals, with conds ranging
from MVFR to IFR. The next round of SHRA/TSRA will arrive from the
W and NW on Sat with the passage of another weak upper level
disturbance. Highest confidence in PoPs would be over Cntrl
sections of the state during the afternoon time frame. This
activity will push SE with time and should wind down near sunset
with VFR conds returning. Winds will be light through the period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     82  62  77  64 /  60  30  90  50
Camden AR         83  67  78  63 /  40  40  70  30
Harrison AR       76  60  70  59 /  70  30  80  40
Hot Springs AR    82  65  75  63 /  50  40  80  40
Little Rock   AR  84  65  78  66 /  50  40  80  40
Monticello AR     83  66  79  66 /  40  30  70  40
Mount Ida AR      81  65  73  63 /  60  50  90  30
Mountain Home AR  79  60  73  60 /  60  30  80  40
Newport AR        83  64  80  65 /  50  30  80  60
Pine Bluff AR     83  65  78  65 /  40  30  80  40
Russellville AR   80  64  73  62 /  50  40  80  30
Searcy AR         82  64  75  63 /  50  30  80  50
Stuttgart AR      82  65  78  66 /  50  30  80  50

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...73
LONG TERM....74
AVIATION...70