839
ACUS11 KWNS 161527
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 161526
TXZ000-161800-

Mesoscale Discussion 0801
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1026 AM CDT Thu May 16 2024

Areas affected...parts of central Texas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely

Valid 161526Z - 161800Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Storms will likely increase in coverage and intensity over
the next several hours, with damaging wind and areas of hail.

DISCUSSION...Widespread rain and storms currently exist along and
north of an outflow boundary, extending from just south of the MAF
to SJT area and curling into northeastern TX. Surface observations
indicate the outflow continues to push south, resulting in an
undercutting action to the existing convection.

As of 15Z, the most notable area of storms was just northeast of
SJT. This convection may be developing into a small MCS, with
northern portions clearly elevated and additional development
occurring along the southern flank. These storms may continue to
grow upscale, ingesting the very moist and unstable air, and
translating east/southeast along the cold front/outflow.

Additional storms are also developing just southwest of SJT, where
robust moisture has pushed westward beneath slightly cooler
temperatures aloft with less capping.  The deepening boundary layer
should generally reduce CIN through the day, with the end result
increasing coverage of strong to severe storms. Damaging winds will
be the primary threat, although large hail may occur with the more
discrete storms before they merge into an MCS.

..Jewell/Thompson.. 05/16/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...EWX...SJT...

LAT...LON   30139882 30140099 30300133 30610140 30970127 31110115
            31400087 31769972 31879902 32109770 32239695 31949646
            31469627 31069646 30769679 30669697 30469745 30139882