418
ACUS11 KWNS 071906
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 071905
TXZ000-072130-

Mesoscale Discussion 0678
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0205 PM CDT Tue May 07 2024

Areas affected...parts of central Texas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 071905Z - 072130Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated storms may develop by late afternoon, with a
conditional threat of very large hail. A small Slight Risk is also
being added to the 20Z convective outlook.

DISCUSSION...Surface analysis shows a stationary front from Dallas
southwestward toward Del Rio, with generally weak wind convergence.
Ample low-level moisture exists south and east of the boundary, with
70s F dewpoints and MLCAPE in excess of 3000 J/kg. Convective
inhibition continues to decrease due to heating, as temperature rise
into the upper 80s to near 90 F.

Visible imagery shows increasing CU fields west of the I-35 corridor
from Austin to San Antonio, particularly along the west edge of a
thicker but eroding cloud deck.

Over the next few hours, isolated severe storms may form over this
small region. Relatively long and straight hodographs along with the
deepening moist boundary layer and very strong instability will
conditionally support very large hail. Splitting cells may occur as
well, with left movers also producing hail.

..Jewell/Smith.. 05/07/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...EWX...SJT...

LAT...LON   30309952 30809874 31109823 31239787 31289741 30949691
            30409700 29559766 29179831 29059965 29230010 29570021
            29889996 30309952