793
FXUS64 KMEG 301807
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
107 PM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1020 AM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024

A mild spring morning across the Mid-South. Temperatures range
from the upper 60s to mid 70s under mostly sunny skies. Dense fog
has finally lifted across the entire forecast area over the past
hour. Surface high pressure stretches from the Great Lakes Region
down to the Gulf Coast this morning. Expect light winds, mostly
sunny skies, and temperatures in the low to mid 80s this
afternoon.

Decreased wind grids for today, as the NBM was too bullish with
such a weak pressure gradient in place. The rest of the forecast
is in good shape.

AC3

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 300 AM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024

High pressure will build in across the Mid-South for today and
Wednesday with dry conditions and above normal temperatures each
day. Showers and thunderstorms will return to the region on
Thursday and continue through Sunday as a front stalls in the
area.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(Today through Monday)
Issued at 300 AM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024

Skies are cloudy across much of the Mid-South east of the
Mississippi River with mostly clear skies elsewhere. Temperatures
early this range from the upper 50s to mid 60s. Areas of dense fog
have already developed across the region and a Dense Fog Advisory
is in effect for the entire Mid-South until 8 AM this morning.

High pressure will build into the region today with dry
conditions. Temperatures will remain above normal today with highs
in the lower 80s. The surface high will be east of the region
tonight with dry weather continuing. Temperatures will remain
above normal tonight with lows Wednesday morning in the upper 50s
to lower 60s. Wednesday will be similar to today as the surface
high remains to our east. Temperatures will be a little warmer on
Wednesday with highs in the mid 80s.

By Thursday, a cold front will move through the central Plains and
into central Arkansas by Friday morning. Showers and thunderstorms
will develop ahead of the front and move into the Mid-South from
west to east and continuing through Thursday night. The cold front
will move into the Mid-South on Friday and then moves out by
Saturday afternoon. As a result, more showers and thunderstorms
are expected both days. Temperatures will be a little cooler
behind the front but will only drop to near normal levels.

A second cold front will move through the region on Sunday with
more showers and thunderstorms ahead of it. Unsettled weather is
expected to continue for Monday with above normal temperatures are
scattered showers and thunderstorms possible.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1249 PM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024

VFR conds areawide. Cu is more prevalent across eastern sections
of the forecast area where fog was widespread early this morning.
The pressure gradient is very weak across the area resulting in
light winds area wide. Cu will dissipate this evening and fog will
develop across eastern sections after midnight. The fog will be
more patchy than last night. Southerly winds will increase a bit
tomorrow over the Delta region as high pressure slides east and
the gradient strengthens a little.

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...ARS
AVIATION...SJM