Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN

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FXUS64 KMEG 222233
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
533 PM CDT Fri Mar 22 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 328 PM CDT Fri Mar 22 2024

Ongoing showers will eventually taper as a cold front moves
through the region later tonight. While cooler and drier
conditions are expected to prevail starting tomorrow, rain is
expected to return to the Mid-South on Monday. A cold front will
bring cooler temperatures through the middle of next week, with a
warming trend starting on Thursday and Friday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(This evening through next Thursday)
Issued at 328 PM CDT Fri Mar 22 2024

Showers will continue across the Mid-South ahead of a mid-level
trough and surface low pressure system. This activity will
gradually taper as the system exits the region, although rain
chances may remain elevated until the passage of the cold front
later tonight. Temperatures on Saturday should be milder with
highs in the 50s and 60s, with chilly low temperatures ranging
from the mid to upper 30s to near 40 degrees.

On Sunday, a broad area of troughing will advance into the
southwestern U.S., with mid-level ridging building in advance of
this system. This will result in a gradual warming trend across
the Mid-South. A tightening pressure gradient associated with a
developing low pressure centered over OK/TX/NE/KS will result in
gusty winds across the region starting on Monday. As the surface
low moves northeast, a warm front will lift north across the Mid-
South. Most guidance develops a line of heavier precipitation,
ahead of an eastward moving cold front that is forecast to move
through the Mid-South starting Monday night. Forecast soundings
prior to the arrival of precipitation depict a rather saturated
thermodynamic profile with precipitable water values nearing 1.5"
in some locations, a value that may approach or exceed the
maximum climatological value for this time of year. Locally heavy
rainfall is possible for the Mid-South starting Monday night and
lasting through Tuesday morning. Some areas could see 2 inches or
more of rainfall.

A cold front is expected to move through the region on Tuesday
afternoon resulting in decreasing rain chances and milder
temperatures on Wednesday and Thursday. On Friday, temperatures
warm as mid-level ridging builds ahead of an approaching shortwave
disturbance over the western U.S.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 527 PM CDT Fri Mar 22 2024

Rain showers associated with a weak upper level low will continue
for the next few hours as the system moves into central Alabama.
Prevailing cigs should remain VFR although periods of MVFR conds
are possible with the heavier showers. North winds will increase
to 10-15kts tomorrow with gusts around 25kts.
30/Sirmon

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...JDS
AVIATION...AEH


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