Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Medford, OR
Issued by NWS Medford, OR
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495 FXUS66 KMFR 051037 AFDMFR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Medford OR 337 AM PDT Sun May 5 2024 .DISCUSSION...Radar imagery is showing showers along and east of the Cascades that appear to be almost stationary. Meanwhile, a few isolated showers are moving across portions of the west side. This is part of a low pressure system that is beginning to meander across southern Oregon and northern California today. Snow levels will be relatively low, around 3500 feet or so; but with the showery nature of precipitation today, do not expect a lot of impacts due to snow, especially with it being May. These showers will begin to dissipate later this evening and tonight as the low pushes eastward away from the area and a brief break is expected. Additionally, we are tracking the potential for freezing temperatures west of the Cascades, especially for the Scott and Shasta Valleys in Siskiyou County. An 80 to 90 percent chance for temperatures at or lower than 32 degrees is expected through 8 AM this morning and a freeze warning remains in effect. Meanwhile, a 70 percent chance for freezing temperatures is expected once again Sunday night into Monday morning despite temperatures being a little warmer. For West Side Valleys in Oregon, the chances for reaching freezing temperatures are lower--about 35% in the southern Illinois and Applegate Valleys--this morning, and those chances will further decrease again tonight as temperatures are supposed to be a little warmer. On Monday, another disturbance will push through the area, keeping moderate temperatures and modest shower chances once again. A few embedded thunderstorms may be possible as well. However, with the weak nature of this impulse and the bulk of precipitation occurring in showers should preclude any significant impacts due to snowfall. Once the impulse leaves the area, the weather pattern will change as a ridge builds into the area. This will allow southern Oregon and northern California to warm up and dry out. This ridge is likely to linger through the extended forecast. -Schaaf && .AVIATION...05/06Z TAFs...A strong frontal system has mostly passed through the region this afternoon, but low pressure following the main frontal band will lead to intermittent, showery precipitation continuing for most of the weekend. Widespread MVFR conditions and terrain obscurations are expected to continue, though some improvement to VFR tonight is expected in areas, including the Rogue Valley. This improvement may not be linear, with conditions bouncing between MVFR and VFR. Snow levels will continue to lower this evening and tonight, and rain showers will transition to snow east of the Cascades. Winds will continue to be gusty along the coast and east of the Cascades with the low pressure. Precipitation will begin tapering off later Sunday afternoon and conditions are expected to improve area wide. -CSP && .MARINE...Updated 200 AM Sunday, May 5, 2024...Expect scattered showers today. West to southwest winds will increase ahead of another front that will move through tonight into Monday with additional showers. Winds become west-northwest Monday afternoon and evening followed by building west-northwest swell Monday night into Tuesday. A thermal trough is expected to develop Tuesday afternoon with gusty north winds and steep wind-driven seas peaking Wednesday, but persisting into Thursday. The thermal trough will weaken Friday into next weekend. -Spilde && .MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...CA...Freeze Warning until 8 AM PDT this morning for CAZ080-081. Freeze Watch from late tonight through Monday morning for CAZ080- 081. PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM PDT Monday for PZZ350-356-370-376. && $$