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000
FXUS62 KMHX 171946
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
346 PM EDT Wed Apr 17 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A backdoor cold front will lift back north as a warm front
today. Another weak cold front cross the region by the end of
the work week before another stronger cold front impacts the
area next weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
As of 1530 Wednesday...Warm front has lifted N of the FA leading
to Serly WAA. Have lowered Highs a degree or two for this
afternoon due to cloud coverage. Upper front and attendant
shortwave will approach the region tonight. CAMs point to a
broken band of precipitation crossing the FA just after midnight
ahead of the s/w, but confidence is low any of this will reach
the ground especially west of Highway 17 where dry air will
remain stubbornly entrenched. Modestly better risk of rainfall
will be along the coast where moisture profiles are less
hostile. Still, the odds of precipitation are low - no higher
than Chc PoPs in any area. Persistent cloud cover and steady
southwesterly winds keep temperatures elevated with overnight
lows in the mid 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY/...
As of 1530 Wednesday...SFC low sliding off the MidAtlantic coast
will usher a weakening front through the NEern half of the FA
while flow aloft becomes more downsloping NWerly in the wake of
the shortwave trough axis pushing offshore. Werly background
winds 10G15kt keeps seabreeze pinned along the Crystal Coast;
Nern sea/sound/river breezes showing more penetration inland,
aided by the front moving through at the same time. Highest PoPs
in the afternoon will be centered over the convergence zone of
the Nern sound/river breezes and the front which could be enough
to spark some upward motion, but the column is expected to be
too dry for any meaningful rainfall. Regardless, can plan on
sunny skies for most with clouds developing along the pinned
Crystal Coast seabreeze and the boundaries in the N with a
broader diurnal Cu field developing inland later. Mostly sunny
through the day leads to MaxTs in the upper 80s inland, low to
mid 70s beaches.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 230 PM Wednesday...

A fairly active pattern is on tap this week into early next week
with multiple frontal passages impacting the area.

Thursday night through Friday night...Upper ridging will build back
over the area late Thursday, with the axis cresting over the area
early Friday with dry conditions prevailing. Another dampening mid
level shortwave and attendant cold front is progged to push across
the area late Friday and Friday night, which may bring isolated to
widely scattered showers and thunderstorms across the region. Most
guidance keeps the best overlap of shear and instability to the west
of ENC, but we`ll have to monitor trends in guidance as there is a
non-zero risk of some stronger afternoon storms west of HWY 17.
Temps will remain above avg across the Coastal Plain with highs
Thursday generally in the mid to upper 80s inland and 70s along the
coast. On Friday, E to NE onshore flow will bring cooler conditions
along the coast, especially across the OBX where mid to upper 60s
will prevail, but well inland highs expected in the mid 80s with a
few upper 80s possible.

Saturday through Tuesday...Broad cyclonic flow prevails over the
Eastern CONUS over the weekend and into early next week. A weakening
cold front will drop into the area Saturday and stall just off the
coast Saturday night. The timing of the front during the day
Saturday will need to be monitored, as some of the 12z guidance
today has come in slower with the front, which may allow more
heating/destabilization to occur across southern sections of ENC.
Should this slower trend hold, we`ll have to watch for a strong to
severe thunderstorm risk.

Additional shortwave energy moving through the flow aloft will bring
better forcing across the area with sfc low pressure developing
along the offshore front, which is progged to pass off the OBX
Sunday night and push the cold front farther offshore on Monday as
high pressure builds in from the west through Tuesday. Highs
Saturday will be a few degrees cooler inland with highs around 75-80
with mid 60s to mid 70s along the coast. Saturday normal inland with
highs in the low to mid 80s inland and 70s along the coast. A cooler
airmass builds in behind the front which, along with clouds and
showers, will keep temps several degrees below normal with highs in
the 60s Sunday and Monday. Temps are expected to warm back to near
normal for Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /through Thursday Morning/...
As of 1300 Wednesday...VFR flight cats expected through the
period. Warm front has lifted N across the terminals earlier
this morning bringing southwesterly winds of 5-10 kt. Gusty
conditions are likely along immediate coastal terminals with a
few gusts up to 20 kt possible. Clouds gradually increase
through the day ahead of a mid-level disturbance, and there is a
low chance (20-35%) of spotty showers traversing the region
from northwest to southeast primarily after 04z Thursday. The
probability, as well as expected impacts to flight ops, was too
low to mention in TAFs this cycle. Regardless of obs reporting
SHRA or not, CIGs will lower, but remain AoA FL040.

LONG TERM /Thursday through Sunday/...
As of 430 AM Wednesday...Pred VFR expected through the long
term although there will be an opportunity for brief periods of
sub- VFR in isolated showers late Friday/Friday night and again
late Saturday as a series of mid level shortwaves and attendant
cold fronts traverse the area. Low pressure passes along the
offshore front on Sunday bringing the best chance of widespread
rain and sub-VFR conditions across rtes.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /Tonight/...
As of 1545 Wednesday...Benign boating conditions continue this
afternoon as warm front lifted N through area waters earlier
today. Regional observations show seas of 3-4 feet with
predominantly S to SWerly 10-15kt. Several of the high-res
models continue to suggest SCA conditions developing offshore
overnight. The less aggressive guidance still shows gusts up to
20+ kt tonight into Thursday morning. Considering how poorly the
model suites resolved the winds near the front yesterday, have
erred on the side of caution and went with SCAs for Central and
Sern coastal waters as well as PamSound overnight.Seas will
remain steady at 3-4 feet through the day, building slightly to
3-5 feet with 6 ft possible over far outer waters overnight
with the stronger winds.

LONG TERM /Thursday through Sunday/...
As of 445 AM Wednesday...An active pattern will prevail in the
long term with a series of mid level systems and weakening cold
fronts move into the waters but conditions are expected to
remain below SCA criteria until late in the weekend. SW winds
around 10-20 kt on Thursday will become NE behind a cold front
pushing through Thursday night into Friday. Variable winds
around 10 kt or less Friday night becomes Nly around 10-15 kt on
Saturday as another cold front drops into the area and stalls
offshore. Low pressure will develop along the front Sunday and
pass off the OBX Sunday night with NE winds around 15-25 kt.
Seas will generally be 2-4 ft, occasionally getting to 5 ft
across the outer waters through most of the period but will
build to 4-7 ft Sunday night.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 7 AM EDT
     Thursday for AMZ135.
     Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 11 AM EDT
     Thursday for AMZ152-154.
     Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 9 AM EDT
     Thursday for AMZ156-158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...MS/CEB
SHORT TERM...CEB
LONG TERM...RM/SK
AVIATION...SK/CEB
MARINE...SK/CEB