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000
FXUS62 KMLB 190059
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
859 PM EDT Thu Apr 18 2024

...New UPDATE, AVIATION, MARINE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 859 PM EDT Thu Apr 18 2024

High pressure over the western Atlantic nudges slightly southward
overnight. Cirrus and mid level stratus drift overhead with skies
becoming partly cloudy. Low temperatures fall to range the low to
mid 60s. The current forecast remains on track.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFs)
Issued at 859 PM EDT Thu Apr 18 2024

VFR through the period. Light and variable winds become east to
southeast as the sea breeze moves inland tomorrow afternoon. The sea
breeze may not reach ISM/LEE where light winds are forecast to
remain west to southwest throughout the day. Dry conditions persist.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 859 PM EDT Thu Apr 18 2024

Tonight...Southeast winds around 5-10 kts veer southwest as high
pressure drifts southward. Seas remain steady around 2-3 ft. No
precip is forecast.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
Issued at 343 PM EDT Thu Apr 18 2024

Rest of Today-Friday...Not much to talk about other than the well
above normal temperatures. Highs are forecast to top out near 90
inland and in the L-M80s closer to the coast. The ridge axis from
high pressure over the Atlantic extends across central Florida this
afternoon, and will continue drifting towards south Florida where it
will settle tonight. Lows tonight in the 60s, except the barrier
islands who will be closer to 70. Very light background flow will
veer southwesterly to westerly by Friday morning, but for the most
part expect variable winds until the sea breeze develops Friday
afternoon, shifting winds southeasterly around 10 mph. Afternoon
highs will climb into the lower 90s inland and the M-U80s along the
coastal corridor. While very warm and well above normal, we`re still
a few degrees short of high temperature records for the day. Very
dry with relative humidity values less than 45 pct west of I-95, and
only the barrier islands at or above 60 pct.

Saturday-Sunday... High pressure over the western Atlantic will
continue to influence the region. Flow aloft will become zonal
Saturday into Sunday with a mid/upper level ridge expected to
flatten over the Southern US as a low to the north deepens across
Canada and the Upper Midwest. Offshore west to southwest flow will
continue with the east coast sea breeze developing and pushing
inland west of I-95 from the east-southeast at around 10mph
Saturday. Wind fields are expected to increase from the southwest
Sunday ahead of a "cool" front which will keep the sea breeze
confined near the coast, mainly south of Cape Canaveral. Southwest
winds at 10-15mph with gusts to 25 mph are forecast.
Rain chances stay non-mentionable through the weekend.
Plenty of sunshine is forecast Saturday with partly cloudy skies
Sunday. Afternoon highs are expected to reach above normal (~5-10
degrees) to near records with temperatures in the upper 80s to low
90s along the coast and the low to mid 90s inland west of I-95. Low
temperatures are forecast to drop into the low to upper 60s. Patchy
fog is forecast across Lake, Volusia, Seminole, Orange, northern
Osceola, and northern Brevard counties Saturday morning, mainly
between 5 and 9am where visibilities will have the potential to drop
to 1 mile or less.

Monday-Wednesday... Global models and ensemble solutions continue to
show the next "cool" front weakening as it enters central Florida
with upper level support remaining to the north over the Carolinas.
Moisture is also a limiting factor with forecast soundings showing
substantial dry air above 700mb, in addition to PWAT values in the
1.2-1.6" range. Scattered showers and isolated lighting storms are
forecast to develop and move east-northeast Monday morning north of
I-4, before moving to the southeast into the afternoon. Guidance
keeps QPF very low through Wednesday with only 0.05-0.25" forecast
Monday. Onshore flow is expected to develop Tuesday afternoon with
the front forecast to stall over south Florida into Tuesday. Some of
the guidance suggests that isolated showers will be possible into
Tuesday afternoon across areas south of the Orlando metro depending
on whether the front nudges back north. Isolated showers are
possible Wednesday with a shortwave trough forecast to track across
central Florida Wednesday coupled with onshore flow and PWATs in the
1-1.6" range.
Afternoon highs are forecast to reach the low 80s to low 90s each
afternoon with lows in the low 60s to near 70 degrees.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 343 PM EDT Thu Apr 18 2024

An area of high pressure located across the western Atlantic will
continue to provide dry conditions across east central Florida
through the remainder of this week and into the weekend. Minimum RH
values will remain in the 35 to 45 percent range across the interior
west of I-95, with a few localized areas across the interior falling
to 30 to 35 percent, especially Saturday and Sunday. Along the
coast, minimum RH values will remain above critical values in the 40
to 55 percent range. Light winds will become west-southwest tomorrow
as the ridge axis shifts southward across the peninsula. The
development of the east coast sea breeze and movement inland will
cause winds to back out of the east-southeast each afternoon.
Wind speeds are forecast to remain below 15 mph through the
remainder of the week. Afternoon smoke dispersion will be
generally good to very good on Friday, and very good to excellent
Saturday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  64  88  64  89 /   0   0   0   0
MCO  66  91  67  93 /   0   0   0   0
MLB  65  86  66  87 /   0   0   0   0
VRB  64  87  64  89 /   0   0   0  10
LEE  66  90  65  89 /   0   0   0   0
SFB  66  91  65  92 /   0   0   0   0
ORL  68  91  67  92 /   0   0   0   0
FPR  63  87  63  89 /   0  10   0  10

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Law
LONG TERM...Sedlock
AVIATION...Law