565
FXUS64 KMOB 051151
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
651 AM CDT Sun May 5 2024

...New AVIATION...

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 651 AM CDT Sun May 5 2024

Fog and low stratus has developed once again this morning across
much of the area, bringing with it LIFR to VLIFR conditions. Fog
will start to dissipate over the next hour or two and VFR
conditions will return and prevail through the evening hours.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are also possible this
afternoon, mainly for inland areas. Expect brief reductions in
visibility and ceilings in some of the heavier activity. Another
round of fog may attempt to develop late tonight across portions
of the region. /96


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 505 AM CDT Sun May 5 2024/

..New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

NEAR TERM...
(Now through Monday)
Issued at 505 AM CDT Sun May 5 2024

Satellite nighttime microphysics and area observations show that
patchy to areas of fog has developed once again across the area
early this morning. At this time, however, dense fog coverage does
not seem to be as widespread as it was yesterday, with only a
couple sites occasionally dropping to 1/4 mile visibility. Due to
this dense fog remaining rather localized and visibilities
fluctuating up and down at other sites, decided against issuing a
Dense Fog Advisory this morning. Will continue to monitor closely
over the coming hours and may consider issuing an SPS for low
visibilities if dense fog coverage increases further and persists
longer. Fog will begin dissipating by around 8AM CDT.

A general zonal flow pattern aloft is expected to continue through
the period as an upper ridge lingers over the Gulf. Additionally, a
shortwave trough over the southern Plains lifts northeastward
through Monday. Although this feature remains to our northwest, it
will help to bring some weak diffluence into the area during the
afternoon and early evening hours tonight. This trough looks to
still influence our region through early Monday afternoon as it
passes to our north. At the surface, large high pressure over the
western Atlantic allows for southerly winds to continue through the
period. Very similar to yesterday, daytime heating, in combination
with weak forcing from the diffluence aloft, and ample moisture in
place from the persistent southerly flow, should allow for isolated
to scattered showers and storms to develop during the afternoon,
primarily over interior areas. Weak shear in place will help to keep
convection disorganized and pulse-like in nature, likely developing
off the sea breeze boundary at first, and spreading via outflow
boundary collisions. As is the case for this type of convection,
cannot rule out one or two stronger storms that would be capable of
producing gusty downdraft winds. PoPs will lower by the late evening
and into the overnight hours due to the loss of daytime heating. By
Monday morning, CAMs hint at some isolated, light shower activity
across our coastal counties, likely associated with the shortwave
moving to our north. This activity will translate inland through the
late morning into the early afternoon before drying out by the late
afternoon as the trough lift away from the region and shortwave
ridging builds in behind it. Convection that does manage to develop
on Monday will be very isolated in nature, with slightly better
coverage expected over our northern tier of counties.

Temperatures will remain quite warm through the period, with highs
ranging from the low 80s along the coast to the mid to upper 80s
inland. Lows tonight will only drop into the mid to upper 60s inland
and remain in the low 70s along the coast. A Moderate risk of rip
currents remains in place through the period. Additional fog
development cannot be ruled out again tonight, although cloud cover
associated with the shortwave aloft may help to keep development
very patchy and localized. /96

SHORT/LONG TERM...
(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 505 AM CDT Sun May 5 2024

A Upper level ridging will slowly build over the region Tuesday
through Wednesday, being most pronounced on Wednesday. A more
zonal upper flow pattern will then return by the end of the week.
There could be a few isolated showers and storms on Tuesday as the
ridging begins to build, but by Wednesday with ridging and
associated subsidence more in place across the region, we expect
mostly dry conditions then. Rain chances return for inland areas
on Thursday afternoon as upper flow becomes more zonal and a cold
front begins to approach the area from the west. Persistent onshore
flow through the period will result in increased moisture later
in the week and storm coverage is expected to increase to around
40 to 50 percent as the cold front pushes into and across our area
Friday and Friday night. This front should move east across our
area by early Saturday morning with dry conditions likely returning
by Saturday afternoon.

Temperatures will gradually warm through mid week as the upper
ridging builds into the Southeast. Highs are expected to reach
into the upper 80s and lower 90s by Wednesday and Thursday for
most locations, except low to mid 80s along and near the coast.
Low temperatures will continue to range from the mid and upper 60s
inland to the lower 70s closer to the coast Monday and Tuesday
nights, then mainly in the 70s across the entire region on
Wednesday night. Relatively cooler temperatures are anticipated
Friday, mainly in the lower 80s, given the increased rain chances
and cloud cover associated with the front. Notably cooler temperatures
expected to begin moving into the region Friday night with the
frontal passage, with lows cooling into the mid and upper 50s over
inland areas and low to mid 60s at the coast. On Saturday highs
will only rise into the mid and upper 70s inland and on the
beaches, but a few lower 80s just inland from the coast along the
I-10 corridor. Dewpoint temperatures will be much lower behind the
front on Saturday as well, so it should be a comfortable day with
low humidity as well. DS/12

MARINE...
Issued at 505 AM CDT Sun May 5 2024

A light onshore flow will persist through the weekend and
then slowly increase to moderate by the middle of next week.
Slightly higher winds are expected during the afternoon hours near
the coast in association with an enhanced sea breeze circulation.
Seas offshore will gradually increase to around 3 to 4 feet by the
middle to latter part of the week. /96

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      86  69  85  70  86  72  87  73 /  20  10  20   0  10   0   0   0
Pensacola   83  71  84  72  83  74  85  75 /  10  10  20   0  10   0  10   0
Destin      82  71  82  72  82  74  83  76 /  10  10  20   0  10   0   0   0
Evergreen   90  66  88  66  89  68  91  71 /  40  20  20   0  20   0  10  10
Waynesboro  89  66  88  67  89  69  92  71 /  40  20  30   0  20   0  10  10
Camden      89  66  87  67  88  69  91  71 /  40  30  30   0  20   0  10  10
Crestview   89  65  88  65  88  67  89  70 /  20  10  20   0  20   0   0   0

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

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