078
FXUS63 KMPX 060819
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
319 AM CDT Mon May 6 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Unsettled weather this week with the focus on tonight into
  Tuesday morning and Wednesday afternoon to Wednesday night.

- Gusty winds today, especially in western Minnesota where a
  Wind Advisory is in effect.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 319 AM CDT Mon May 6 2024

Today and tomorrow... The high pressure responsible for the
great day yesterday will be off to our east over the Great
Lakes. Then to the west we will have the low for our next system
moving into the Northern Plains. With us in the center, this
will increase the pressure gradient and give us a classic signal
for gusty winds. This is only enhanced by the warm air
advection that we will get from the southerly winds today. This
advection will warm the lower atmosphere allowing for mixing,
further increasing confidence that today will be a windy day. As
mentioned in previous discussions, today will be the warmest
day of the week with temperatures in the lower 70s. Temperatures
won`t get much warmer than that thanks to cloud cover moving
west to east this morning through the afternoon as our next
round of rain moves in. As you would expect with our 100 PoPs,
rain is definite as all members in the LREF and HREF show a line
of showers passing through associated with the previously
mentioned system. Where there remains more spread through is in
QPF. The LREF remains higher with the previously mentioned quick
0.50-0.75" accumulations expected. HREF PMM show a more
widespread 0.25-0.50" accumulation with more localized totals of
0.5-1.0" accumulations. What is less certain is if the
precipitation rates will maintain as the line moves deeper into
Minnesota. This is where the difference is, as HREF PMM keeps
the higher totals more focused on southwestern Minnesota with a
notable decrease in rain rate as it progresses deeper into the
state. The risk for thunderstorms remains low as instability is
limited, largely thanks to the time of day it passes through.
However with high winds aloft we could still see some gusty
winds mix down in the showers. We will remain in the warm sector
on Tuesday and near the frontal boundary so additional activity
could occur. This is shown in the 06Z HRRR for example with
another line of thunderstorms feeding off of marginal
instability across eastern Minnesota and into western Wisconsin.
With limited shear it would be unlikely to see anything severe.

Wednesday through Sunday... The upper low will remain rooted
over the north central US until it finally starts to move out
Friday. This will give continued chances for unsettled weather.
Over the last few runs however ensembles have started to
converge on Wednesday afternoon to Wednesday night as the next best
chance for activity. As the upper low continues to churn over
us an embedded short wave in its circulation could have enough
PVA associated with it to bring with it some rain. Currently the
best chances here look to be along the I-90 corridor. There are
more chances for precipitation after this, but there are very
high spreads in the ensemble models so PoPs have been kept low.
Temperature wise, Wednesday will be similar to Tuesday in the
mid 60s to lower 70s before Thursday ends up our coolest day of
the week as we finally get to the cooler side of this system.
Temperatures still likely getting into the lower 60s though.
Temperatures will likely hold near normal Friday into the
weekend. There is another round of synoptic forcing late Friday
into early Saturday, but not much QPF in ensemble systems due
to questionable moisture.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1116 PM CDT Sun May 5 2024

VFR conditions through Monday evening, before showers and
thunderstorms move in. The main concern is low level turbulence
as southeast winds increase on Monday. A solid line of showers
with a few embedded thunderstorms will move across the region
Monday evening/night. Confidence is high that TAF sites will
see rain, but less for thunder, so did add Prob30 groups to
KAXN, KRWF, and KMKT.

KMSP...VFR conditions through Monday evening, before showers and
thunderstorms move in. Southeast winds will increase on Monday,
with gusts near 30 kts possible. A line of showers with a few
embedded thunderstorms will approach KMSP around 05 to 06Z.
Confidence is high that MSP will see rain, but less for
thunder.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUE...Mainly VFR. Chance MVFR/-RA. Wind SW 15G25 kts.
WED...Mainly VFR. Chance MVFR/-TSRA. Wind E 10-15 kts.
THU...Mainly VFR. Chance MVFR/-RA. Wind NE 10-15 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...Wind Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 11 PM CDT this
     evening for Brown-Chippewa-Douglas-Kandiyohi-Lac Qui
     Parle-Martin-Pope-Redwood-Renville-Stevens-Swift-Watonwan-
     Yellow Medicine.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...NDC
AVIATION...JRB