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000
FXUS63 KMPX 151748
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1248 PM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- One more day of dry and breezy conditions in western and southern
Minnesota.

- Widespread rain is expected early Tuesday into Wednesday. Most
locations should see around an inch of rain along with a few rumbles
of thunder.

- Below-normal temperatures late this week through next weekend
  with highs in the 40s and 50s expected. Sub-freezing lows are
  likely Thursday night and Friday night.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 433 AM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024

Today will be similar to yesterday with breezy and mostly dry
conditions. The worst of the conditions, with relation to fire
weather concerns, reside in far southwestern Minnesota where a Red
Flag Warning is in effect 11AM-7PM. Highs will be seasonably warm,
with low 70s across the south. Rain chances and cloud cover will
limit heating in central Minnesota and western Wisconsin, where
highs will likely remain in the 60s. Scattered rain showers on radar
this morning are just starting to reach the ground, moving in an
hour or two sooner than anticipated. These showers can be attributed
to the co-location (at the 700mb level) of warm air advection and
frontogenesis. This will slowly weaken and shift northeast
throughout the day, with the continuation of intermittent light rain
showers for areas along and north of the I-94 corridor. It will dry
out for a few hours before midnight ahead of the bigger system on
track to arrive early Tuesday morning.

A large system associated with a low pressure center in Iowa will
bring widespread showers and thunderstorms to Minnesota and
Wisconsin. Rain will move in from the southwest during the overnight
hours Monday into Tuesday. By Tuesday mid-morning, the precipitation
shield will cover all of southern Minnesota and western Wisconsin as
the low progresses east. Easterly winds will get quite gusty as the
low nears, with widespread gusts to 30MPH possible Tuesday
afternoon. This coverage will continue through early Wednesday, with
locally heavier amounts in areas that see thunderstorms. The system
will exit the region to the east on Wednesday as the low moves
towards southern Wisconsin. Things will clear eastern Minnesota by
mid-afternoon Wednesday and clear western Wisconsin by the evening.
Looking at QPF, the NBM continues to narrow down totals, with a
slight downward trend the farther north in Minnesota you are. Most
areas should see at least an inch of rain, with some seeing just
under two.

Regarding the severe threat, it remains relatively low for Minnesota
and Wisconsin. There will be storms just to the south that could
stray north, but the environment north of the Iowa border remains
marginal. CAPE is the limiting factor, with only a few hundred J/kg
of most unstable CAPE reaching far southern Minnesota both early
Tuesday and again late Tuesday. Of these two time periods, late
Tuesday brings the better chance for stronger storms. Looking beyond
the limiting CAPE, deep layer shear is very good with 40-50kts
across southern Minnesota. That being said, it will likely not be
enough to overcome the lack of instability. Taking all of this into
account, a few storms could produce hail and some stronger gusts.

Looking beyond this period`s weather-maker, things will drop off
temperature wise as easterly winds become northwesterly and bring in
cooler air. This cold air advection could lead to some snowflakes
mixing with rain. High temperatures Thursday through the weekend
remain in the mid to low 50s, with overnight lows dipping into the
mid to low 30s. Friday and Saturday nights are currently forecast to
be the coldest, with a few 20s possible in rural areas in western
and central Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1238 PM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024

VFR through tonight with SCT/BKN mid-level clouds and easterly
winds gusting around 20 kts. Widespread showers coming out of
Iowa will overspread the area from south to north during the
morning. MVFR visibility and ceilings are most likely during the
rain, but IFR conditions are possible during the heaviest
showers. Isolated thunderstorms embedded within the showers are
also expected, although confidence in their coverage is low at
the moment. Used a PROB30 mention to convey the thunderstorm
potential for now. Very gusty winds will lead to wind shear
issues overnight, with easterly gusts of 30-40 kts likely
developing by the end of the period. Sporadic gusts up to 50 kts
are possible during any rain showers.

KMSP...Southeasterly wind shear of 45-50 kts is expected to
develop below FL020 overnight. These strong winds will mix down
to the surface by late morning with east/southeasterly gusts of
30-40 kts expected. Rain showers will move in during the
morning, most likely between 8-10 AM, and continue on and off into
the evening. Sporadic gusts up to 50 kts can`t be ruled out
during the strongest rain showers. A few thunderstorms will
likely be embedded within the showers, with the thunder threat
looking slightly more likely during the afternoon.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
WED...AM -RA & MVFR/IFR. Wind NW 20G30 kts.
THU...VFR. Wind W 15-20G30 kts.
FRI...VFR. Wind WNW 20G30 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for Brown-Martin-
     Redwood-Watonwan-Yellow Medicine.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...PV
AVIATION...ETA