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000
FNUS73 KMPX 130711
FWSMPX

Spot Forecast for Ugly 80 Rx...Wisconsin DNR
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
211 AM CDT Sat Apr 13 2024

Forecast is based on ignition time of 1000 CDT on April 13.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

Please contact our office at 952-361-6671 if you have questions or
concerns with this forecast.

.DISCUSSION...
For the Ugly 80 burn, the main challenge this morning will be the
changing winds. They should generally be out of the south/southeast
near ignition time, and then become more southerly and eventually
southwest later in the day. Speeds will increase as well, with
afternoon gusts near 25 mph. RH values will drop into the mid to
upper 20s during the afternoon, leading to elevated fire weather
conditions for the afternoon and early evening.

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (15-25 percent).
Temperature.........53 at ignition...Max 74.
RH..................50 percent at ignition...Min 28 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Winds south at 10 mph at ignition...otherwise
                    South winds 10 to 17 mph shifting to the
                    southwest around 14 mph late in the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Fair /20600 knot-ft/ at ignition.
                    Max...excellent /103800 knot-ft/.
Mixing height.......1500 ft AGL at ignition...otherwise 4300 ft
                    AGL.
Transport winds.....South 16 to 24 mph shifting to the southwest 28
                    to 29 mph late in the afternoon.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth at ignition...max 5.

TIME (CDT)      10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM
Sky cover.......MCR CLR MCR CLR MCR MCR MCR PC  MC  PC  PC  MCR
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Temp............53  57  62  66  69  72  73  74  73  71  67  62
RH..............50  42  36  30  30  28  30  29  30  36  49  58
20 FT wind dir..S   S   S   S   S   S   S   SW  SW  SW  S   SW
20 FT wind spd..10  13  13  15  16  17  17  14  14  10  10  9
20 FT wind gust.17  18  18  22  24  25  25  22  20  17  14  13
Mix hgt (kft)...1.5 2.0 2.4 3.1 3.6 3.7 4.0 4.3 1.7 0.7 0.5 0.5
Transp wind dir.S   S   S   S   S   S   SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW
Transp wind spd.16  20  22  24  28  28  29  28  18  13  12  12
Haines index....5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (50-60 percent) then becoming
                    partly cloudy (25-35 percent) then becoming
                    clear (0-10 percent).
Temperature.........Min 44.
RH..................Max 86 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds 7 to 14 mph shifting to the
                    northwest around 7 mph late in the evening,
                    then shifting to the north 7 to 8 mph
                    overnight.
Smoke dispersal.....Fair (27700 knot-ft) early in the evening
                    decreasing to poor (3500 knot-ft) late in the
                    night.
Mixing height.......400 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southwest 10 to 18 mph shifting to the north 9
                    to 14 mph late in the evening.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.

.SUNDAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (10-20 percent).
Temperature.........Max 68.
RH..................Min 31 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Northwest winds 7 to 13 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (3600 knot-ft) early in the morning
                    increasing to excellent (103300 knot-ft) in the
                    afternoon increasing to excellent (70700
                    knot-ft) late in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......7300 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Northwest 12 to 21 mph.
Haines Index........4 to 5 or low to moderate potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.

$$
Forecaster...Beitlich
Requested by...Andrew Ciurro
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2410561.0/MPX
.DELDT 04/13/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL andrew.ciurro@wisconsin.gov