Spot Forecast
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
498
FNUS73 KMPX 081242
FWSMPX
Spot Forecast for Regal Flats Rx...MN DNR
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
742 AM CDT Wed May 8 2024
Forecast is based on ignition time of 1000 CDT on May 08.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.
Please contact our office if you have questions or concerns with
this forecast.
.DISCUSSION...For the Regal Flats Burn, relative humidity values
will fall to 35-40% this afternoon with temperatures warming into
the lower 70s. Winds will remain calm through 9AM, with east-
northeasterly winds gradually increasing to around 10 mph through
the morning. A few gusts up to 20 mph are possible during the
afternoon. About a 30% chance of a shower or thunderstorm also
exists this afternoon.
.REST OF TODAY...
Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (40-50 percent). Slight chance of
showers and thunderstorms late in the
afternoon.
Temperature.........60 at ignition...Max 71.
RH..................60 percent at ignition...Min 38 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Winds east at 8 mph at ignition...otherwise
East winds 8 to 13 mph. Gusty and erratic winds
expected near thunderstorms late in the
afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Fair /16300 knot-ft/ at ignition.
Max...excellent /114000 knot-ft/.
Mixing height.......1600 ft AGL at ignition...otherwise 7600 ft
AGL.
Transport winds.....East 12 to 18 mph.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
dominated fire growth at ignition...max 5.
TIME (CDT) 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM
Sky cover.......PC PC MCR MCR PC MC MC MC MC MC MC MC
Weather cov..... SCH CHC CHC SCH SCH
Weather type.... RW RW RW RW RW
Tstm cov........ SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH
Temp............60 62 64 66 68 70 71 71 69 66 62 58
RH..............60 56 52 48 43 39 38 39 44 52 62 69
20 FT wind dir..E E E E E E E E E E NE NE
20 FT wind spd..8 10 12 12 12 13 12 10 10 8 8 10
20 FT wind gust.13 16 17 17 17 18 17 16 16 12 13 16
Mix hgt (kft)...1.6 2.5 3.2 4.1 5.0 6.4 7.6 7.1 2.6 0.8 0.9 0.5
Transp wind dir.E E E E E E E E E E NE NE
Transp wind spd.12 14 16 17 16 16 16 18 16 12 9 14
Haines index....5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5
.TONIGHT...
Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (60-70 percent) then becoming
partly cloudy (35-45 percent). Chance of rain
showers early in the evening. Slight chance of
thunderstorms early in the evening. Slight
chance of rain showers early in the evening.
Temperature.........Min 43.
RH..................Max 82 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Northeast winds 8 to 13 mph. Gusty and erratic
winds expected near thunderstorms early in the
evening.
Smoke dispersal.....Good (35900 knot-ft) early in the evening
decreasing to poor (5900 knot-ft) late in the
night.
Mixing height.......500 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....East 9 to 16 mph shifting to the northeast 16
to 20 mph in the late evening and overnight.
Haines Index........4 to 5 or low to moderate potential for large
plume dominated fire growth.
.THURSDAY...
Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (25-35 percent).
Temperature.........Max 62.
RH..................Min 43 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Northeast winds 9 to 13 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (10300 knot-ft) early in the morning
increasing to excellent (73900 knot-ft) in the
afternoon.
Mixing height.......6100 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Northeast 12 to 21 mph.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
fire growth.
$$
Forecaster...Dye
Requested by...Louise Spiczka
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2413471.0/MPX
.DELDT 05/08/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL louise.spiczka@state.mn.us