432
FXUS66 KOTX 052154
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
254 PM PDT Sun May 5 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Rain showers will continue across the PacNW into Monday. As the
low slides east, conditions will remain cool and showery and
breezy. Warmer and drier weather will arrive late next week. Next
weekend has the potential to deliver our warmest temperatures of
the spring so far.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Tonight through Tuesday: As the Low continues to pass to the
South of the Inland Northwest, a deformation band will be
stretched North to South over the Eastern Washington. The band
will bring shower activity across the region with many locations
seeing at least a quarter of an inch of precip. There will be
localized areas of higher amounts near 0.3" mainly in Northeast
Washington through Monday morning. The probability of at least
0.2" for most of the region is near 80%. The east slope of the
Cascades is expected to miss out as the West to East winds keep
the band from reaching these areas. With models hinting at enough
instability, an isolated thunderstorm is possible in for
Northeast WA including Spokane and North ID on Monday afternoon.

Winds will be breezy for both Monday and Tuesday as a quick moving
cold front pushes through the region behind the exiting Low. Winds
on Monday will be strongest in Southeast Washington and the
Palouse with a 60% probability of gusts of at least 30 MPH. The
rest of the region can expected gusts into the mid 20s. Tuesday
winds will be stronger and more widespread across the Columbia
Basin. The probability of at least 30 MPH is at least 40%.
Strongest winds will again be in the Palouse reaching into the
low 40 MPH range. The Cascades valleys could also see gusts near
40 MPH. Winds will calm late Tuesday as the cold front exits.
Temperatures for the next couple of days will be 50s to low 60s
for highs and 30s and low 40s for overnight lows.

Wednesday through Sunday: Ensembles are in decent agreement of a
ridge pattern developing along the coast during this period. A dry
warmer trend is expected for the period. There will be diminishing
mountain shower activity through Wednesday. The warming trend is
expected to bring widespread 80 degree temperatures by the
weekend. Overnight lows will be in the upper 40s and 50s. /JDC

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: The rain band extending from Sandpoint to Spokane to Tri
Cities will pivot to the west this afternoon. That should bring
several hours of ceiling and visibility improvements to Spokane,
Coeur d`Alene, Pullman and Sandpoint. Radar trends and 12z model
runs limit the westward progress to about Moses Lake and Grand
Coulee. With drier downslope west winds in central WA, confidence
is high that Wenatchee, Chelan, and Omak will remain VFR with
little to no precipitation. Moses Lake and Ephrata will get some
light rain, but may experience enough drying from the west to keep
prevailing VFR until the rain band moves eastward this evening.
Spokane, Coeur d`Alene, Pullman, and Lewiston can expect ceilings
to lower as the band returns in the 00z-05z time frame before it
moves east and gusty winds help to break up low ceilings after
06z. /GKoch

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS:
Confidence in ceilings and visibility within the band of rain is
low. We are dealing with an axis of mid and low level moisture
convergence favoring localized ceiling reductions to 1500 ft or
less, but it is a relatively narrow band with a good deal of dry
being advected from the west. With a good deal of variability in
the MOS and HREF guidance, frequent amendments are anticipated to
keep up with the changing conditions. /GKoch

-----------------------

Confidence descriptors:
Low - Less than a 30 percent chance
Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance
High - Greater than a 70 percent chance

For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane airports,
please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our webpage:
https://www.weather.gov/otx/avndashboard

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        40  57  35  59  37  63 / 100  60  20  10   0   0
Coeur d`Alene  40  54  35  55  37  60 / 100  90  40  30  10   0
Pullman        37  52  34  52  35  56 / 100  70  40  20   0   0
Lewiston       45  61  41  59  41  63 / 100  70  40  30  10   0
Colville       37  59  32  59  36  67 / 100  70  40  20   0   0
Sandpoint      40  53  36  53  38  58 / 100  80  50  50  10  10
Kellogg        39  49  36  48  37  54 / 100  80  70  70  20  20
Moses Lake     40  63  38  64  37  71 /  30  30   0   0   0   0
Wenatchee      44  59  41  59  40  69 /  20  30   0   0   0   0
Omak           42  64  36  64  38  72 /  40  20  10   0   0   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$