173
FXUS64 KOUN 262346
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
646 PM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 210 PM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024

There is a low chance that afternoon storm activity will continue
this evening across portions of far southeastern Oklahoma. We
should be quiet overnight as the next system begins to move closer
to the southern Plains. Saturday is one of those days where it
will be a great idea to remain weather aware for the ENTIRE day
and evening, even if you wake up in the morning and it is cloudy
(which it most likely will be for the entire day). We could see
storms initiate as early as Saturday morning across portions of
western north Texas, and move northeastward into central and north
central Oklahoma. Initially, the thinking is that any stronger
storms in the morning will have the potential to produce large
hail and a few tornadoes if they can be surfaced-based. Continuous
storms throughout the morning are very well in the realm of
possibilities. Now, what will that do to the afternoon and evening
set up? Well, truth be told, there is still uncertainty as to how
much it will temper afternoon and evening convection, just given
the parameter space. If western Oklahoma, especially along the
dryline, can remain convection free until the afternoon, then
storms that form along the dryline later in the afternoon and
evening will pose the risk for significant severe weather.
Meridional flow relative to the boundary will support storm
interaction, which will limit discrete storms. Nevertheless, with
sufficient deep-layer shear, steep lapse rates supporting MLCAPE
of up to 3500 J/kg, and low-level curvature of the hodograph, any
stronger storm could produce very large hail (up to baseballs) and
intense tornadoes. As the aforementioned trough overspread the
Panhandles and western Oklahoma during the early evening, multiple
storms are expected to initiate along the dryline and form into a
line. This line will slowly move eastward and will affect much of
the area overnight. At this point, damaging winds and tornadoes
will be main threats, especially as a low-level jet ramps up after
sunset.

In addition to all of the severe weather...with there being
multiple rounds of storms, a flooding threat is expected across
portions of north central, central, and southern Oklahoma. Most
locations will only see 2-3 inches, but there will be localized
areas that could see 4-6 inches of rain by Sunday morning.

Please have multiple ways to receive warnings Saturday. Please
have WEA turned on on your cellular device, and tell your
family/friends who live across the western two-thirds of Oklahoma
and western north Texas to be weather aware the entire day! Have
your plan in place now, it could save your life!

Bunker
&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through next Thursday)
Issued at 210 PM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024

Remnant portions of the QLCS will still be lingering by Sunday
morning with damaging winds, tornadoes, and flash flooding as the
main threats. This will mainly impact portions of east central,
south central, and southeastern Oklahoma. We could see some
redevelopment Sunday afternoon across east central down to south
central and southeast Oklahoma, especially if there are any
remnant boundaries that linger from the morning convection.
Nevertheless, severe storms are still possible in the afternoon,
with hail and damaging winds being the main threat.

Daily chances of thunderstorms are possible throughout the week,
but any severe chances are uncertain at this time. A warm up is
expected through the middle of the week before a cold front moves
in during the latter part of the week and give us a brief cool
down.

Bunker

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 619 PM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024

Gusty south winds will persist until 272400. MVFR ceilings are
expected to form tonight and last into Saturday morning.
Thunderstorms are expected to form near KSPS and KLAW before
sunrise. Severe storms, including tornadoes, are possible in the
afternoon north to south through all of central Oklahoma.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  66  76  59  78 /   0  80  70  30
Hobart OK         60  79  55  81 /  10  70  40  10
Wichita Falls TX  66  78  57  81 /  10  80  70  10
Gage OK           55  85  51  79 /   0  30  10  10
Ponca City OK     65  80  59  79 /   0  80  70  40
Durant OK         68  81  62  77 /  30  70  90  80

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Flood Watch from Saturday morning through Sunday evening for
     OKZ020-025-026-028>032-039>043-045>048-050>052.

TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...68
LONG TERM....13
AVIATION...09