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000
FXUS63 KPAH 120707
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
207 AM CDT Fri Apr 12 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Breezy conditions continue on Friday with west-northwest winds
  gusting 25 to 35 mph.

- Warm and dry weekend ahead with high temperatures ranging from
  the mid 70s to low 80s, warmest on Sunday, above normal
  temperatures continue through Thursday.

- Shower and thunderstorm chances return next week, with the highest
  chances late Tuesday into Tuesday night and again on Thursday.
  Severe storms may be possible with both of these systems.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 207 AM CDT Fri Apr 12 2024

Upper level trough over the western Great Lakes region is clearing
to the east this morning. A few showers may squeeze out near dawn in
southwest Indiana in the wraparound of the associated departing
surface low but overall mostly sunny skies with a northwest
breeze is forecast today. Temperatures will rise into the middle
60s with sun but the breeze may keep things a bit chilly
feeling. Broad upper level ridging and surface high pressure
then takes over for several days, with mostly sunny skies and
temperatures warming up to around 80 degrees or slightly higher
in the afternoon.

A trough and embedded closed low of the California coast looks to be
our next major weather maker. This system is forecast to lumber off
the Rockies Monday afternoon and low level flow out of the south
amplifies in response as a lee cyclone forms on the Front Range. In
the 00z guidance a warm front establishes well to the north of the
region Monday night, with subsidence aloft we likely remain dry
despite the ample low level moisture return.

Tuesday night into Wednesday both GFS/ECMWF deterministic and most
ensemble members show this low get booted eastward by a 110-130
kt west southwesterly jet max over the southern plains into the
mid-Mississippi Valley and troughing over the northwestern
CONUS. Tuesday evening puts the area in alone forms on the Front Range. In
the 00z guidance a warm front establishes well to the north of the
region Monday night, with subsidence aloft we likely remain dry
despite the ample low level moisture return.
 diffluent flow region despite the speed convergence of the
right front quadrant of the jet max. Large scale ascent to the
northwest deepens a sfc low over MO/IA into about 994-986mb
depending on which model you are looking at. 850mb flow is
impressive at 50-60 kt. Surface return flow is pretty good, with
62-67 degrees the general consensus between deterministic and
ensemble members which works with about 6.5 C/km mid-level lapse
rates for about 700 J/kg of MLCAPE. The moisture though arrives
just in time as flow shifts to the southwest. There are then
some fairly significant differences in how a front moves
through, or doesn`t completely through Wednesday. The synoptic
picture is reasonably favorable for severe weather and will
warrant a close watch over the coming days. However its fair to
say some of the details, like moisture return trajectories, and
smaller scale jet/ascent details are not quite lined up for this
event. If nothing else a very windy day looks possible. Kept
low-end pops through Wednesday into Thursday owing to the mess
that is the deterministic solution.

Thursday we have the potential to have better low level moisture in
place with several days of southerly flow off the Gulf of Mexico.
Taking the 00z deterministic at face value, which is probably
not a great idea at that range, we end up with more of a good
instability, sufficient shear event. In short, unsettled weather
Tuesday through Thursday and its not hard to visualize some
severe weather during that period but we have several days of
benign weather with which to evaluate it.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 608 PM CDT Thu Apr 11 2024

VFR conditions expected through the end of the period. Main
concern tonight is the LLWS at the TAF sites. A low level
inversion is expected to set up and bring our winds down to
around 10kts at the sfc, but winds will stay elevated at around
2,000 ft at around 40-45 kts. Clouds will steadily move out over
the next few hours but could come back at KEVV and KOWB tomorrow
morning for a bit.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JGG
AVIATION...SHAWKEY