Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO
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409 FXUS63 KSGF 060601 AFDSGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Springfield MO 101 AM CDT Mon May 6 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Widespread rainfall continues through this evening before exiting from west to east tonight. Low risk for localized flooding. No severe weather expected. - Strong to severe thunderstorms late Monday evening into Tuesday morning, especially for areas west of Highway 65. SPC highlights an Enhanced Risk (3/5) for this area. Primary hazard is damaging wind gusts of 70 to 80 mph. Additional hazards include a few short- lived tornadoes and quarter sized hail. - Additional chance for strong to severe thunderstorms on Wednesday. - Forecast rainfall amounts through Thursday morning are between 1 to 3 inches, which supports a low localized flooding threat. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 345 PM CDT Sun May 5 2024 Through Tonight: A shortwave trough is moving through the area this afternoon. Showers and a few thunderstorms have been slow to spread across the area this afternoon, though recent trends have depicted increased coverage. This was the result of some mid level dry air that was in place this morning. While rainfall rates have been around 0.5 to 1.0 inch per a hour, the residence time over any given area has been short-lived. This has limited any excessive rainfall and thus no flooding. There remains a low risk for localized heavier amounts and flooding through this evening. HREF Probability Matched Mean (PPM) depicts the highest rainfall amounts along the MO/AR border through tonight, with localized corridors approaching 1 to 1.5 inches. Expect this activity to continue through the evening, before sliding east of the area tonight. Most of the area should be completely dry after midnight. For tonight, overnight lows drop to around 60, with overcast skies lingering behind the precipitation. Winds become rather light with the presence of low-level moisture as dewpoint depressions become favorable for areas of patchy dense fog across southeast KS into southwest and west central MO. The extent of the dense fog will generally be limited to areas west of Highway 65 through Monday morning. Monday: Expects clouds and areas of dense fog to dissipate through Monday morning. A rather dry and quiet Monday afternoon is expected ahead of the next approaching system. Highs on Monday reach into the upper 70s to near 80 with southerly flow advecting in moisture to the area. Expect a mix of sun and clouds through Monday afternoon, though a stout cap should inhibit much of any convection chances within the warm sector of a developing low pressure system. This is related to the approach of negatively tilted trough across the Plains, that will be the focus for strong to severe thunderstorms across the Central Plains into the Middle Mississippi Valley. Recent trends support an extension of the SPC Enhanced Risk (3/5) into portions of southeast Kansas and western Missouri. The Slight Risk (2/5) has been pulled further east to account for this upgrade. An assessment of hi-res guidance depicts the approach of strong to severe thunderstorms across the west late Monday evening (around 9 PM or after), with a gradual weakening trend through the overnight hours as it translates eastward. Initial development across central Kansas will be discrete in nature, before growing upscale into a line of thunderstorms as it spreads into the area. The environment will be characterized by a strong instability (1500-2500+ J/kg) and 35 to 40 knots of deep layer shear. Increasing warm air advection supports dewpoints climbing into the middle 60s. The primary hazard will be significant damaging wind gusts, approaching 70-80 mph within bowing segments. This is highlighted in the SPC wind hazard probabilities, denoting a hatched corridor of 30% extending into the area. Generally along and west of line from Osceola to Stockton to Monett. This is where the threat is highest for significant wind gusts up to 80 mph, especially if the line is able to establish a strong cold pool. Additional hazards include a few tornadoes and severe hail. The tornado threat remains more favorable to the west, though favorable low-level kinematics may support a few tornadoes. An analysis of environment, depicts 0-1km CAPE around 50-100 J/kg in the vicinity of 0-1km low-level shear around 30 knots. Forecasting soundings suggest 0-3km shear around 30 to 40 knots to the east/northeast, thus mesovortex development would be favorable within any segments bowing in this direction. Significant Tornado Parameter (STP) values around 1 to 3 edge into portions of southeast KS and southwest MO. The mesoscale environment will be best analyzed in the near term, with additional hi-res guidance and RAOBs as well. The threat is low for localized heavy rainfall amounts and flooding given the progressive nature of this line of thunderstorms. As the line approaches the Highway 65 corridor, expect a gradual weakening trend to transpire as the environment becomes less favorable. However, the damaging wind gust threat still lingers into Tuesday morning along and east of Highway 65. Continue to monitor the forecast for updates over the next 24 hours as there is still remaining uncertainties on the exact timing and mesoscale features. Tuesday: The line of thunderstorms exits across the east through Tuesday morning. The extent of restrengthening remains uncertain, though recent trends suggest the line may completely clear the area through mid morning. This would limit any additional severe threat on Tuesday afternoon. By the afternoon, the area will be dry with clearing skies and highs warming into the upper 70s to lower 80s. Drier weather persists through Tuesday ahead of the next approaching system on Wednesday. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Issued at 345 PM CDT Sun May 5 2024 Wednesday-Thursday: Additional upper- level jet support and an embedded shortwave energy build into the region on Wednesday. A surface low develops to the west and the associated frontal passage will be the focus for showers and thunderstorms. The timing and finer details still remain uncertain for this system, though the general trend suggests initiation over the area before progressing eastward. The environment will be supportive of strong to severe thunderstorms, with ample instability and shear depicted among the ensembles. Storm mode and potential hazards will better analyzed in subsequent forecast updates early this week. Nonetheless, a cold front clears the area behind this system with a cooler and drier airmass filtering into the region late week. Highs on Thursday reach into the middle 70s. Friday-Saturday: Ensemble guidance solutions begin to diverge into next weekend, though there has been a consistent signal for cooler and drier weather. Highs next weekend are forecast to be in the upper 60s to lower 70s. Additionally, a stretch of drier weather should help area lakes and rivers that continue to run high. The CPC highlights a period through mid-May of below normal temperatures and precipitation. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 1256 AM CDT Mon May 6 2024 Drizzle and fog are expected early this morning. Will have to watch observations to see how dense fog will become. VFR conditions are then expected today until thunderstorms (some severe) move in from the west late Monday into Monday night. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 345 PM CDT Sun May 5 2024 Over the past 7-10 days, most of the Ozarks has seen significant rainfall with some locations receiving as much as a foot of rain (Vernon and Bourbon(KS) Counties). With multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms forecast through mid-week, localized flooding and additional rises on area rivers and streams will be possible. Current forecasts are from from 1 to 3 inches with localized higher amounts of rainfall through the period. Several area rivers remain elevated or above flood stage and these will be monitored through the period. && .SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...Dense Fog Advisory from 4 AM to 9 AM CDT this morning for KSZ073-097-101. MO...Dense Fog Advisory from 4 AM to 9 AM CDT this morning for MOZ066-077-088. && $$ SHORT TERM...Perez LONG TERM...Perez AVIATION...Titus HYDROLOGY...Hatch