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000
FXUS64 KSJT 181106
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
606 AM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 227 AM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024

Main story today will continue to be the arrival of the strong
cold front this afternoon and evening. Latest model runs from the
high res models continue to speed up the front some across the
Big Country, with the front arriving along the I-20 corridor
before max heating. Thus, have stayed on the cooler side of
guidance across the Big Country. Farther south, compressional
heating along the front will provide a big boost, especially
across the Concho Valley where downslope winds will also aid
heating. May make a serious run at the 100 degree mark for San
Angelo.

Front arrives across the southeast counties late in the afternoon,
colliding with CAPE values climbing above 2500 in some locations.
Cap is still substantial, but latest CAMs are showing scattered
convection developing across portions of the Heartland and Hill
Country around sunset. Given the instability and shear, big hail
looks to be the main concern. Most of the convection looks to
dissipate after midnight as the atmosphere cools.

Cold front continues south overnight and allows the cooler air
mass to filter into the area. Lows in the 50s and 60s, maybe eve
some 40s north of I-20.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 329 AM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024

.long term...

...Localized heavy rainfall Saturday...

Moist air will be overrunning cooler air at the surface this
weekend, particularly Saturday and Saturday evening, as an upper
shortwave approaches from the west. Main concern will be
localized heavy rainfall/flooding, which will be mainly beneficial
as the the region has been dry the last several weeks. Rainfall
amounts Friday night into Saturday night could exceed an inch in
locations. Severe weather is also minimal give weak instability,
but isolated thunderstorms possible.

Rainfall comes ends early Sunday morning, as the upper trough will
have moved east. Winds shift back southeast and south Monday as
surface high pressure moves into East Texas. Temperatures will
gradually climb back into the 80s Tuesday and Wednesday, with a
slight chance of showers and thunderstorms returning Wednesday as
a weak cold from moves through

$$

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 600 AM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024

MVFR cigs cover most West Central Texas terminals early this
morning, and will cover the rest shortly. These low clouds will
persist through mid morning and then break up. Cold front will
make progress today, likely reaching KABI by noon and then moving
south across the remainder of the terminals by sunset. Latest CAMs
continue to show isolated to scattered convection bear the
eastern terminals this evening and will include a mention in the
forecast for the most likely time frame.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     91  53  64  54 /  10  10  10  70
San Angelo  99  58  73  59 /  10  10  20  60
Junction    97  61  78  62 /  20  30  20  50
Brownwood   93  57  67  58 /  30  20  10  60
Sweetwater  90  53  65  53 /   0  10  20  70
Ozona       96  62  77  61 /  10  10  30  60
Brady       94  61  72  61 /  30  30  10  50

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....04
AVIATION...07