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000
FXUS64 KSJT 241739
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
1239 PM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 241 AM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024

Isolated thunderstorms developing off the dryline in the eastern
Permian Basin and South Plains this afternoon, may move east into
the Big Country and northern Concho Valley this evening. With GFS
MUCAPES of 2000 to 2500 J/KG and 0-6 bulk shears of 40 KTS, some
storms could be severe. With fewer short range CAMS models
indicating convection, however, confidence in storm development is
less than Tuesday. Hail up to 2 inches and winds up to 70 mph
possible.

It will be otherwise another warm day with highs in the 80s.
Areas from the Concho Valley could hit 90 degrees. Southerly winds
will continue to advect moisture into the region with
redevelopment of low clouds again tonight. Mild tonight with lows
in the mid an upper 60...as clouds and south winds of 10 to 20 mph
keep the atmosphere mixed and temperatures up.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 412 AM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024

...Severe thunderstorms possible Thursday night...

A negatively tilted shortwave trough will lift northeast from the
Desert Southwest Thursday morning and into the central/southern
Plains by early Friday morning. Thunderstorms are expected to
develop west of the area along the dryline Thursday evening, as
lift increases ahead of the shortwave. Thunderstorms are expected
to increase in coverage across West Central Texas mainly after
midnight, as the dryline/Pacific front advance eastward. Ample
low level moisture, coupled with strong deep layer shear will
support some severe storms well into the overnight hours, with the
greatest threat expected from the Concho Valley northward into
the Big Country. Large hail and damaging winds will be the primary
hazards, although a couple of tornadoes will be possible as low
level shear increases with a strengthening low level jet.
Thunderstorms are expected to end early Friday morning, as storms
move off to the east.

Another upper level trough will develop over the Desert Southwest
early Saturday and is forecast to lift northeast into the
central/southern Plains late Saturday night and early Sunday. This
system will bring a chance of thunderstorms to the area Saturday
into early Sunday, along with another threat for some severe
storms.

Still looks like mainly quiet weather for the area early next
week, with thunderstorms possible again by mid week as yet another
shortwave develops southwest of the region.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1239 PM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024

Currently there is a mix of MVFR to VFR ceilings across the area.
Expect all sites to lift into VFR in the next couple hours, with
south to southeast winds gusting between 15 and 20 knots through
this evening. Gusts will likely continue intermittently overnight
as the LLJ increases after sunset. MVFR ceilings are expected to
return overnight between 06Z and 09Z, with IFR heights possible at
KBBD, KSOA, and KJCT from 09Z through mid to late morning on
Thursday. There is a chance for an isolated TSRA near KABI this
evening, but confidence is not high enough in coverage or
placement of any of this activity to mention in this TAF forecast.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     68  84  64  86 /  20  10  80  10
San Angelo  68  85  65  88 /   0   0  60   0
Junction    68  88  68  91 /   0   0  30  10
Brownwood   66  82  65  86 /   0  10  60  30
Sweetwater  68  83  63  85 /  20  10  70   0
Ozona       67  82  65  88 /   0   0  50   0
Brady       68  83  68  87 /   0  10  50  30

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM....24
AVIATION...20