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000
FXUS62 KTAE 211847
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
247 PM EDT Sun Apr 21 2024

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY...

.NEAR TERM...
(Through Monday)
Issued at 239 PM EDT Sun Apr 21 2024

Shortwave trough passes through this afternoon and at the surface,
the cold front is making steady progress through the forecast area.
Around 3 pm ET it was located roughly from Tyndall AFB northeast to
Tifton. Winds have a little bit stronger this afternoon behind the
front with occasional gusts up to 25 or 30 mph from the north. These
gusts are confined just along and behind the front with gusts
dropping to around 15 to 20 mph after the front moves through. Rain
showers behind the front will persist a few hours after frontal
passage but clearing conditions were already noted across southern
Alabama and moving steadily southeast, and by Sunset most of the
rain should be through the forecast area except for the southeast
Big Bend.

For tonight, clearing conditions and cool temperatures are expected
with low temperatures generally in the upper 40s and low 50s. For
Monday, the surface high pressure fills into the region from the
west with clear skies and cooler conditions in the low to mid 70s
expected.

&&

.SHORT TERM & LONG TERM...
(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 239 PM EDT Sun Apr 21 2024

A warming and moistening trend is expected through the short and
long term periods with high temperatures warming back into the mid
to upper 80s by Thursday and lasting into the weekend. Dry
conditions are expected through the next week, with no rainfall
expected. A weak front will approach the region on Thursday but
should stall out somewhere north of the area with little to no
effect on our local weather. Overall, warm but benign weather is
expected to prevail into next weekend.

&&


.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 109 PM EDT Sun Apr 21 2024

Frontal system passing through the region will keep a mix of
IFR/MVFR conditions through the rest of the afternoon. Conditions
will improve from northwest to southeast later this afternoon and
into the evening hours as the front moves through. Light rain
showers are possible along and behind the front but those will
diminish around just after sunset. Gusty northerly winds around 10
to 20 knots possible until later this evening when winds drop off
to around 5 to 10 knots overnight.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 239 PM EDT Sun Apr 21 2024

Showers and thunderstorms will be possible across the waters
this evening as a cold front pushes through the region. Breezy
winds and building seas are expected in the wake of the front
tonight, with advisory conditions forecast for waters west of
Apalachicola and cautionary conditions east of Apalachicola. Winds
and seas are forecast to subside late Monday into Tuesday. Fairly
benign boating conditions are expected thereafter.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 239 PM EDT Sun Apr 21 2024

Cold front moves through this afternoon with drier northerly flow
moving in for Monday. Fire weather concerns will be on the low end
except high dispersions across the region on Monday. Warmer
conditions move in for the upcoming week and no rain is anticipated
for much of the upcoming week.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 239 PM EDT Sun Apr 21 2024

Minor to moderate flooding remains on the Withlacoochee River this
afternoon although levels continue to fall. Minor flooding
continues along the St Marks River, Aucilla River, and Suwannee
River as well, with further rises expected along the Suwannee
River over the next week. The only rain chances in the forecast
are today, and totals are not expected to be enough to produce any
meaningful riverine response.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is requested. Spotters should safely report
significant weather conditions and/or damage by calling the
office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   76  53  73  50 /  80   0   0   0
Panama City   74  52  73  53 /  60   0   0   0
Dothan        69  47  70  47 /  40   0   0   0
Albany        74  49  70  46 /  50   0   0   0
Valdosta      75  55  72  49 /  70  10   0   0
Cross City    82  55  75  50 /  70  30  10   0
Apalachicola  78  55  72  58 /  60  10   0   0

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk until 10 PM EDT /9 PM CDT/ this evening
     for FLZ112-114.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 10 AM CDT Monday
     for GMZ750-752-770-772.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Dobbs
SHORT TERM...Merrifield
LONG TERM....Merrifield
AVIATION...Dobbs
MARINE...Merrifield
FIRE WEATHER...Dobbs
HYDROLOGY...Merrifield