599
FXUS62 KTBW 192349
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
749 PM EDT Sun May 19 2024

...New AVIATION...

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 739 PM EDT Sun May 19 2024

VFR conditions prevail through the period across terminals. South
to southwesterly winds are expected to become gusty and shift from
the northwest into the afternoon on Monday. Lingering front over
southern portions of the state could bring isolated storms in the
afternoon mainly to FMY/RSW, but the rest of the TAF site should
remain dry.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Low level inversion earlier today really hindered convective
activity ahead of the frontal boundary for most of the area. But
diurnal heating S of the front is finally breaking the cap
allowing storms to tap into 3000+ CAPE airmass for possible strong
afternoon thunderstorms over Highlands Co and may still see some
isolated thunderstorms into SW FL until the front finally moves
through later this afternoon/evening. Elsewhere, dangerous rip
currents continue along areas beaches through sunset.

The upper shortwave from the Carolinas into N FL is progged to
briefly stall in the W Atlantic with troughing extending back
over the area for Monday and Tuesday. The frontal boundary should
be over S FL with weak high pressure building into N FL while
residual modest support and moister to produce diurnal seabreeze
showers or storms mainly in the interior areas Monday and Tuesday
during the late afternoon and evening hours.

Upper ridging to build over the region from the SW Gulf around
mid week with surface ridging building along the E Seaboard as
shortwaves move E well N of the area late week and over the
weekend, eroding the ridge while the surface ridge weakens
slightly and shifts a bit E into the Atlantic.

&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  76  88  72  90 /  10  10  10  20
FMY  76  91  72  92 /  30  30  10  30
GIF  72  90  70  90 /  20  30  10  40
SRQ  75  89  71  91 /  20  10  10  20
BKV  68  89  65  91 /  10  20   0  30
SPG  78  88  76  90 /  10  10  10  20

&&



.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk until 8 PM EDT this evening for Coastal
     Charlotte-Coastal Hillsborough-Coastal Lee-Coastal Manatee-
     Coastal Sarasota-Pinellas.

Gulf waters...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/AVIATION...Delerme/RDavis
DECISION SUPPORT/UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...ADavis