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000
FXUS65 KTFX 201816
AFDTFX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
1216 PM MDT Sat Apr 20 2024

...AVIATION SECTION UPDATED...

.UPDATE...

Forecast is on track with no significant updates this morning.
An upper level ridge noses south into the region from Alberta
while at the surface high pressure slides east across the Dakotas
today for mainly clear skies and light winds across the entire
forecast area. After a cold start this morning, afternoon
temperatures will be around 10-15 degrees warmer than the last
several days, but still around 5-10 degrees below seasonal
averages for late April. Hoenisch

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Warmer air will slowly move into Central MT over the next few
days. Overall, Wednesday is looking to the be warmest day over
the next week or so, along with the potential for strong winds on
Sunday along the Rocky Mountain Front and the nearby adjacent
Plains.

&&

.AVIATION...
1216 PM MDT Sat Apr 20 2024 (20/18Z TAF Period)

High pressure will remain over the Northern Rockies for at least the
first half of the TAF period for widespread VFR conditions and light
winds. Higher level clouds will begin to increase after 21/06Z as a
Pacific cold front approaches from the west. Westerly winds and
associated mountain wave activity initially increase along the Rocky
Mountain Front after 21/09Z before spreading onto the plains and
valleys to the east by Sunday afternoon. Wind gusts will approach
and exceed 50 kts along the Rocky Mountain Front, while gusts mostly
stay within the 20 to 40 kt range elsewhere. Aside from a few
isolated showers along the Continental Divide and Southwest Montana,
little in the way of precipitation is expected with the frontal
passage and VFR conditions will prevail. - RCG

Refer to weather.gov/zlc for more detailed regional aviation
weather and hazard information.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 357 AM MDT Sat Apr 20 2024/

Today through Monday...Mostly clear skies will prevail over the
CWA today, as a strong area of surface high pressure moves off to
our east. Temperatures will start to warm up slowly over the next
few days. Afternoon temperatures will be below normal today, but
then warm to near normal for Sun/Mon. The main concern on Sunday
will be the potential for strong winds. The probability of strong
winds on Sunday is still near 50 percent, however the latest NBM
does have the stronger winds further south along the divide and
further east along the Hi-line. Thus the high wind watch area was
expanded a bit to cover these areas. The pressure gradient along
the divide looks to be strong enough that the Southern Plains zone
should mix down. A few showers will be possible over Southwest MT
on Sunday evening. while on Monday a weak upper level disturbance
moves eastward along the U.S. Canadian border, producing a few
light rain/snow showers in that region.

Tuesday through Saturday...An upper level ridge of high pressure
will be over MT to begin the period. This will result in Wednesday
likely be the warmest day of the week next week, and even that
will not be too warm, with afternoon temperatures only about 10
degrees above normal. There will be a chance for
showers/thunderstorms late in the day on Wednesday. A few of the
storms could be on the strong side. As we move into next Fri/Sat
the GFS/EC start to differ on solutions. Once again the GFS model
is much wetter/colder than the EC. The NBM seems to have a handle
on the blend...thus no changes to the NBM for late next week.
Brusda

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  49  31  58  34 /   0   0   0   0
CTB  47  27  51  32 /   0   0   0   0
HLN  56  33  60  32 /   0   0   0   0
BZN  52  27  65  26 /   0   0  10  10
WYS  49  21  57  22 /   0   0  20  20
DLN  53  32  64  27 /   0   0   0   0
HVR  51  27  61  35 /   0   0   0   0
LWT  45  25  60  29 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
High Wind Warning from 7 AM Sunday to midnight MDT Sunday night
for East Glacier Park Region-Eastern Glacier, Western Toole, and
Central Pondera-Eastern Toole and Liberty-Northern High Plains-
Southern High Plains.

&&

$$

http://www.weather.gov/greatfalls