880
FXUS64 KTSA 031744
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1244 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(The rest of today)
Issued at 1018 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024

Regional doppler radar imagery shows showers and thunderstorms
have shifted east of the forecast area this morning. Behind the
departing complex, visible satellite depicts low-level stratus
remaining intact across portions of eastern OK and northwest AR.
Latest model guidance has the stratus deck eroding/scattering out
by the early afternoon hours, with mostly sunny to partly cloudy
skies anticipated thereafter for most locations. Light
northeasterly winds this morning will veer out of the southeast by
early this afternoon. As a result, this will maintain a fairly
moist and humid airmass into this evening, with dewpoints reaching
the mid- upper 60s by sunset for most locations. With a
marginally unstable airmass still in place, daytime heating may
cause a few isolated showers and thunderstorms to develop in the
afternoon. Despite marginally sufficient (25-35kts) 0-6km bulk
shear and steepening mid-level lapse rates into this afternoon,
weak low-level winds and lack of a significant lifting mechanism
should keep any convection that develops spotty and sub-severe
through the afternoon. But since it is early May, will monitor
trending conditions closely. Otherwise, unseasonably warm and
humid conditions will prevail today, with high temperatures
generally reaching the upper 70s and lower 80s.

Mejia

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tonight through Thursday)
Issued at 246 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024

Additional storms will develop to the northwest later today along a
another cold front that will move southeast into the area late
tonight and into Saturday. Severe potential with this round of
storms appears limited as activity begins to diminish Saturday
afternoon. This boundary will stall to the south of the area late
Saturday. Another round of storms will likely develop along the
stalled boundary as an upper wave begins to move through the
southern plains Saturday night. This activity will spread into the
area late Saturday night and continue into Sunday. Storms should
be out of the area by late in the day Sunday, and things should be
quiet for the most part until later in the day Monday and Monday
night. A strong upper system will lift through the mountain west
region and into the high plains Monday evening, with storms
expected to develop along the dry line to the west. These storms
will track east with the highest chances for storms across NE OK
and NW AR Monday night into Tuesday morning. For the rest of the
forecast period, will continue with low PoPs across much of the
area as weak disturbance traverse the area within strong mid level
flow.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1244 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024

Low-level stratus continues to blanket portions of northeast OK
and northwest AR early this afternoon. However, latest visible
satellite trends show the clouds beginning to scatter and break
apart. Anticipate cloud bases to further lift and VFR to prevail
by 19-20z at all TAF sites, with low-moderate confidence on exact
timing. A few isolated showers/storms may develop later this
afternoon. However, removed the mention of SHRA/TSRA in TAFs
through the afternoon, with the precipitation probabilities too
low to include at this time. Low-level stratus will likely return
late tonight/early Saturday morning, especially across the AR
terminals. Another round of convection is expected to develop
north of the area and move northwest-to-southeast across the
region early Saturday morning, with scattered showers and
thunderstorms lingering through much of the morning Saturday.
Southeast winds will shift out of the north as a cold front moves
into the area late in the TAF period.

Mejia

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   79  63  78  61 /  10  30  80  50
FSM   82  64  81  66 /  20  10  70  40
MLC   81  65  79  64 /  20  20  60  60
BVO   79  60  77  56 /  10  40  80  40
FYV   81  60  80  60 /  20  10  70  40
BYV   79  60  79  60 /  20  10  70  30
MKO   79  62  77  62 /  20  20  70  50
MIO   79  61  77  59 /  10  30  70  30
F10   79  62  78  62 /  20  20  80  60
HHW   79  65  79  64 /  20  20  60  60

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...67
LONG TERM....23
AVIATION...67