Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
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624 FXUS64 KTSA 080523 AFDTSA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tulsa OK 1223 AM CDT Wed May 8 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (The rest of tonight) Issued at 903 PM CDT Tue May 7 2024 Quiet weather is likely for most of the night, although potential for early morning showers and thunderstorms ahead of an approaching cold front remains toward day break in northeast Oklahoma. Earlier activity in southeast Oklahoma and into southwest Arkansas remains more likely to stay east of the forecast area given recent CAM runs. The going forecast remains on track and an update is not planned this evening. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday through Tuesday) Issued at 225 PM CDT Tue May 7 2024 Scattered thunderstorms are likely to continue Wednesday morning in the vicinity of the warm front and the advancing cold front across northeast Oklahoma into northwest Arkansas. There will continue to be adequate instability and deep layer shear for these storms to be strong to severe with large hail the main concern. However, any storms that can get rooted in the boundary layer will be capable of producing damaging winds and even a tornado. Additional thunderstorms are anticipated through the day in the vicinity of the cold front as it moves through the remainder of eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas. Any of these that develop during the afternoon and early evening will have the potential to be severe with all modes of severe weather possible. The storm potential comes to an end Wednesday evening as the cold front exits the region. Thursday through Sunday is forecast to be mostly dry with only a few showers/storms possible across far southeast Oklahoma on Thursday as a storm system grazes the area to the south. Otherwise, high pressure is expected to prevail. The next chance of showers and storms arrives Sunday night and continues into early next week as an upper level low drifts over the area. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1223 AM CDT Wed May 8 2024 VFR elements will prevail for the first 6 hours or so of the valid period at all sites except KMLC where an increase in MVFR cigs before 12z is likely. Will also include WS remark at all sites through the 12z-15z time period. A cold front will be moving into the area after 12z, with a brief tempo group in for -TSRA for KTUL and KRVS will be maintained for storms that may develop along the boundary. Better chances for storms will come later this afternoon and will include prob30 groups at the remaining sites. Once the front passes winds will become NW with prevailing VFR TAF elements for the remainder of the period. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TUL 84 54 79 52 / 50 10 0 0 FSM 87 59 83 56 / 50 40 10 10 MLC 86 59 81 55 / 20 20 10 10 BVO 82 49 77 48 / 20 0 0 0 FYV 84 54 79 49 / 60 30 10 10 BYV 83 53 77 50 / 70 30 10 10 MKO 84 54 77 52 / 40 10 10 0 MIO 81 51 75 49 / 50 10 0 0 F10 85 54 77 53 / 30 10 10 0 HHW 85 62 82 57 / 30 30 20 10 && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. AR...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...22 LONG TERM....10 AVIATION...23