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000
FXUS64 KTSA 220520
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1220 AM CDT Mon Apr 22 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(The rest of tonight)
Issued at 915 PM CDT Sun Apr 21 2024

Sfc high pressure over the area this evening has resulted
in clear skies and light winds. Decent radiational cooling
expected will allow overnight temperatures to cool into the 30s
throughout most of eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas. Frost
advisory across NW AR tonight looks good, with the coldest
readings overnight expected in those locations. Isolated locations
across NE OK may see some frost, but will not expand the advisory
given the isolated potential. Remaining first period elements
look good as well, therefore no update is required at this time.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Sunday)
Issued at 200 PM CDT Sun Apr 21 2024

Temps warm quickly Monday morning with southerly winds increasing
and becoming gusty across NE OK through the day. Any areas where
dormant fine fuels remain could see an uptick in fire spread
potential. The warming trend continues into Tuesday ahead of the
next cold front which is expected into NE OK by Tuesday afternoon
and slowly advancing southward and possibly stalling across
southern area by Wednesday morning. A slight chances of showers
and storms appears warranted for Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday
night both along and north of the frontal boundary.

Wednesday into Wed. night has been a more consistent signal for
higher shower and storm coverage along and north of the stalled
boundary. The Wed. night into early Thursday period could see
precip chances increase area wide as the pattern evolves into
strengthening low level warm advection downstream of the wave
advancing from the southwest CONUS.

The warm front will eventually lift or reorganize north of the
forecast area by early Friday with the expanding warm sector
enveloping the forecast area ahead of the ejecting mid level wave.
Friday continues to trend toward high thunderstorm coverage and
likely a risk of severe weather. The pattern quickly reloads with
another strong wave over the southwestern CONUS by early Saturday
and this wave will similarly maintain thunderstorm chances and
risk of severe weather into next weekend with more specific timing
details refined as the forecast evolves.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1220 PM CDT Sun Apr 21 2024

Mostly clear skies and light winds will continue tonight as
surface high pressure slides through the CWA and exits Monday
morning. Southerly winds return Monday and become gusty with the
strongest gusts expected over Northeast Oklahoma Monday afternoon.
Winds are forecast to weaken some Monday evening...while winds
aloft remain gusty. Thus...will carry low level wind shear Monday
evening for all CWA TAF sites. VFR conditions should prevail
through the TAF period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   37  72  54  79 /   0   0   0  10
FSM   38  71  49  79 /   0   0   0  10
MLC   36  70  54  79 /   0   0   0  10
BVO   33  73  51  78 /   0   0  10  10
FYV   33  69  49  77 /   0   0   0  20
BYV   34  68  50  76 /   0   0   0  20
MKO   36  69  52  77 /   0   0   0  20
MIO   35  68  52  74 /   0   0  10  20
F10   37  69  53  78 /   0   0   0  10
HHW   37  67  49  74 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...Frost Advisory until 8 AM CDT Monday for ARZ001-002-010-011.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...23
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...20