960
FNUS75 KTWC 051341
FWSTWC

Spot Forecast for Bear Fire...USFS
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
641 AM MST Sun May 5 2024

Forecast is based on forecast start time of 0700 MST on May 05.

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM MST
THIS EVENING...

.DISCUSSION...A dry weather system to our north will result in windy
conditions today. Winds will quickly increase as the morning progresses
at the fire site, peaking this afternoon with gusts up to around 40 mph.
A Red Flag Warning is in effect as these winds will combine
with min RH values around 15 percent. Winds will diminish this evening through
the evening and overnight hours. Slightly cooler temperatures Monday
with a decrease in winds, though it will still be breezy in the afternoon.
Breezy afternoon winds are expected each day for the rest of the week as well.

.TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny.
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
LAL.................1.
Max temperature.....78-81 degrees.
Min humidity........14-18 percent.
20-foot winds.......Breezy. South winds 8 to 16 mph, increasing to 15 to 25 mph
                    after 0900, shifting to the southwest 19 to 29 mph in the afternoon.
                    Gusts up to 40 mph.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Mixing height.......2700 ft AGL increasing to 7500 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southwest 18 to 25 knots.

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Clear.
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
LAL.................1.
Min temperature.....46-49 degrees.
Max humidity........60-63 percent.
20-foot winds.......Southwest winds 13 to 18 mph with gusts to
                    around 30 mph shifting to the south 5 to 8 mph
                    overnight after 2200 through the overnight.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Mixing height.......1800 ft AGL decreasing to 100 ft AGL early in
                    the evening.
Transport winds.....Southwest around 17 knots decreasing to around
                    5 knots overnight.

.MONDAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny.
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
LAL.................1.
Max temperature.....77-80 degrees.
Min humidity........12-15 percent.
20-foot winds.......South winds 5 to 10 mph shifting to the west 11
                    to 16 mph in the afternoon. Gusts 20 to 25 mph in the afternoon.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Mixing height.......2000 ft AGL increasing to 6800 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....West 7 to 12 knots.

$$
Forecaster...LADER
Requested by...VALENCIA
Type of request...WILDFIRE
.TAG 2413195.0/TWC
.DELDT 05/05/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL christopher.valencia@usda.gov

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