980
FXUS65 KABQ 081738 AAB
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1138 AM MDT Wed May 8 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 232 AM MDT Wed May 8 2024

Another day of windy and dry conditions is forecast today with high
fire danger and the potential for rapid fire spread. Temperatures
will run a few degrees cooler today due to a another weak cold
front that is passing through. As the work week comes to a close
Thursday and Friday, moisture will start to seep back into parts
of New Mexico from the east, and this could lead to isolated to
scattered thunderstorms returning to the forecast, mainly in north
central to northeastern areas of New Mexico. Fortunately, much less
wind is forecast with the exception of the eastern Albuquerque
metro area where a gusty east canyon wind will surge in,
particularly Thursday night into Friday morning. Elsewhere the
lighter winds should reduce the fire danger that has been so high
lately. Additional moisture and an approaching disturbance from
the west could keep more showers and thunderstorms in the forecast
this weekend, primarily over north central to northeastern areas.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 232 AM MDT Wed May 8 2024

New Mexico remains under the southern edge of a large synoptic scale
troughing pattern over the western and central CONUS, highlighted by
a large 540dm H5 low centered over western ND/SD. Shortwave
perturbations within this larger troughing pattern have sent down a
modest backdoor cold front through northeastern NM this morning
where forecast high temperatures today will be 5F to 10F colder than
yesterday. Another cold front is making its way through northwestern
NM where highs will fall more sharply into the 60s around
Farmington. Dry and windy conditions return areawide by the early
afternoon as stronger westerlies aloft mix back down to the surface.
These very dry westerly winds will push the aforementioned backdoor
front eastward into TX. Very dry conditions highlighted by minimum
humidity once again falling into the single-digits will be
widespread this afternoon. Patchy blowing dust will be possible
again as a result. The strongest winds look to focus near and around
the southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains where peak gusts of 45 to 55
mph will be possible. A Wind Advisory will be hoisted with this
forecast package for this area as a result.

Winds decouple Wednesday evening, allowing a resurgent backdoor cold
front to invade eastern NM. Strong easterly winds behind front are
expected to push through the gaps of the central mountain chain
Thursday morning with gusts of 25 to 30 mph possible at ABQ and
Santa Fe. Meanwhile, calmer conditions and clearer skies will allow
for efficient radiational cooling over western and northern NM. Many
locales in this area will see Thursday morning lows fall to near or
below freezing. This will include Farmington which is past its
climatological average last freeze date. A Freeze Watch will be laid
down for the Northwest Plateau for Thursday morning. Thursday will
see the changing weather pattern begin to yield shifts in sensible
weather conditions. Easterly upslope flow at the surface through the
Sangre de Cristo Mountains undercutting a strengthening divergent
southwesterly flow ahead of an upper low digging into UT will yield
showers and a few thunderstorms over the northern mountains near CO.
Further cooler weather across the eastern plains and increasing PoPs
over the northern mountains and adjacent areas will be the rule
heading into the long term period.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 232 AM MDT Wed May 8 2024

Surface high pressure will build stronger to the east of the
Rockies Thursday evening, enhancing the gradient between the Rio
Grande and the eastern plains. The upper low cutting off and
retrograding toward the Great Basin will only help draw these
surface features into motion. This will induce a stronger surge
of east winds into central areas with an acceleration through gaps
and canyons. Winds in the eastern ABQ metro look to be the
strongest, potentially exceeding 60 mph, so a High Wind Watch has
been hoisted.

Into Friday, surface winds retain an east southeasterly component
over much of central and eastern NM with surface dewpoints
remaining in the 30`s and 40`s. At this point there will be some
faint large scale ascent starting to enter the area, but nothing
that is too appreciable, as the low will still be near the Las
Vegas, NV vicinity. Isolated to scattered storms are still
expected to develop in the modestly unstable air with upslope
assisting on east southeast faces of mountains within northern NM.

Ingredients come together for a better coverage of showers and
thunderstorms on Saturday as the remnants of the southern NV low
are now looking to be set into and eastward motion a bit sooner.
While the feature will be weakening and filling in, it could still
offer some scant dynamics while low layer moisture advection
continues with a bit of upslope and continued modest instability.
Some of the eastern plains could see some upper 40`s to low 50`s
dewpoints which would increase soaking rainfall potential with the
best juxtaposition of forcing/upslope extending from north central
to east central NM where POPs are trending upward.

The low is now shown to exit to the east by Sunday (per the GFS) or
Monday (per the ECMWF), carrying the best chances for showers and
thunderstorms to the northeast before tapering off. Timing with
the cessation of precip is still uncertain due to model
differences, but even with a full departure, enough moisture could
be left behind for at least isolated to scattered showers and
storms. A weak and mostly dry Pacific low could get steered inland
by the subtropical jet by Tuesday, and then into the middle of
next week a longer wave trough may carve itself out over the
middle of the country.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1126 AM MDT Wed May 8 2024

Breezy west to northwest winds will prevail across most of central
and northern NM this afternoon. While it won`t be as windy as
previous days, gusts to 45 kts are still possible in the northern
mtns and adjacent highlands. A backdoor cold front enters from the
northeast this evening and will accelerate south and westward
after sunset, eventually pushing through the gaps of the central
mtn chain around 12Z tomorrow morning. Wind gusts at KABQ will
peak around 30kts between 15Z and 18Z so an AWW may be needed if
model winds trend stronger. MVFR cigs will begin to spread across
the northern mtns between 15Z and 18Z tomorrow.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 232 AM MDT Wed May 8 2024

...WIDESPREAD CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER TODAY FOR EASTERN NM AND THE
UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY...

Despite somewhat improved conditions from recent days, very dry
westerly winds will push a backdoor front back into TX from
northeastern NM. This will usher in another round of widespread
critical fire weather conditions across eastern NM, also including
the Upper Rio Grande Valley. Peak gusts of 40 to 55 mph combined
with unstable conditions and single-digit humidity will allow for
rapid fire spread from any new spark today. Elevated to locally
critical conditions will exist elsewhere across central and western
NM with wind speeds there staying just below critical fire weather
thresholds.

A shift to cooler and wetter conditions arrives Thursday as a
backdoor front surges through eastern NM producing a strong east
canyon wind through the gaps of the central mountain chain. Very
strong gusts of 50 to 60 mph will be possible immediately below
Tijeras Canyon in eastern Albuquerque. An upper level storm system
digging into the desert southwest in combination with the surface
cold front will produce increased showers and a few thunderstorms
favoring central NM and the northern mountains each afternoon
through the end of the week into the weekend. Eastern and northern
mountain areas will generally see cooler temperatures, wetter
conditions and poor to fair ventilation during this timeframe, while
west-central areas will remain dry with excellent ventilation and
continued westerly prevailing winds.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  61  30  71  42 /   0   0   0  20
Dulce...........................  60  24  66  32 /   0   0  30  40
Cuba............................  59  32  66  38 /   0   0  10  20
Gallup..........................  65  29  69  32 /   0   0   0   0
El Morro........................  63  33  66  32 /   0   0   0   0
Grants..........................  68  30  71  35 /   0   0   0   0
Quemado.........................  68  36  69  33 /   0   0   0   0
Magdalena.......................  72  42  71  41 /   0   0   0   0
Datil...........................  68  37  68  35 /   0   0   0   0
Reserve.........................  74  31  73  33 /   0   0   0   0
Glenwood........................  78  42  77  43 /   0   0   0   0
Chama...........................  55  26  60  31 /   0   0  40  50
Los Alamos......................  61  41  63  40 /   0   0  10  30
Pecos...........................  62  38  62  38 /   0   0  10  30
Cerro/Questa....................  56  37  56  36 /   0   5  30  50
Red River.......................  53  27  51  29 /   0  10  50  60
Angel Fire......................  55  24  53  32 /   0   5  30  50
Taos............................  62  29  63  35 /   0   0  20  40
Mora............................  62  33  57  33 /   0   5  20  40
Espanola........................  69  37  72  41 /   0   0  10  30
Santa Fe........................  64  41  66  43 /   0   0  10  30
Santa Fe Airport................  67  38  68  42 /   0   0   5  20
Albuquerque Foothills...........  72  48  73  47 /   0   0   0  10
Albuquerque Heights.............  74  44  75  49 /   0   0   0   5
Albuquerque Valley..............  77  39  77  43 /   0   0   0   5
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  73  45  75  47 /   0   0   0   5
Belen...........................  78  35  78  45 /   0   0   0   0
Bernalillo......................  73  43  76  46 /   0   0   0  10
Bosque Farms....................  77  34  78  43 /   0   0   0   0
Corrales........................  74  44  76  46 /   0   0   0   5
Los Lunas.......................  77  35  78  44 /   0   0   0   0
Placitas........................  68  43  71  45 /   0   0   0  10
Rio Rancho......................  73  44  75  47 /   0   0   0   5
Socorro.........................  83  46  81  49 /   0   0   0   0
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  64  41  64  42 /   0   0   0  10
Tijeras.........................  67  41  68  43 /   0   0   0  10
Edgewood........................  68  36  68  41 /   0   0   0  10
Moriarty/Estancia...............  70  33  69  40 /   0   0   0  10
Clines Corners..................  66  36  63  38 /   0   0   0  20
Mountainair.....................  70  36  70  41 /   0   0   0   5
Gran Quivira....................  72  38  71  41 /   0   0   0   0
Carrizozo.......................  77  48  76  46 /   0   0   0   0
Ruidoso.........................  70  41  69  36 /   0   0   0   0
Capulin.........................  64  35  55  33 /   0   5  20  30
Raton...........................  68  36  59  36 /   0   5  20  40
Springer........................  69  38  62  38 /   0   5  20  30
Las Vegas.......................  66  36  60  35 /   0   0  10  30
Clayton.........................  73  43  64  40 /   0  10  10  20
Roy.............................  71  43  63  40 /   0   5  10  30
Conchas.........................  80  47  73  46 /   0   0   5  20
Santa Rosa......................  76  42  71  45 /   0   0   0  20
Tucumcari.......................  81  44  73  44 /   0   0   0  10
Clovis..........................  81  47  75  46 /   0   0   0   5
Portales........................  83  45  76  46 /   0   5   0   5
Fort Sumner.....................  81  44  76  47 /   0   0   0  10
Roswell.........................  90  53  83  54 /   0   0   0   0
Picacho.........................  81  47  77  47 /   0   0   0   0
Elk.............................  79  46  78  43 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Freeze Watch from late tonight through Thursday morning for
NMZ201.

Red Flag Warning until 8 PM MDT this evening for NMZ104-121-123-
125-126.

High Wind Watch from Thursday evening through Friday morning for
NMZ219.

Wind Advisory until 6 PM MDT this evening for NMZ212-214-215-223-
229.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM....52
AVIATION...16