Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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713
FXUS61 KAKQ 220049
AFDAKQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
849 PM EDT Mon May 21 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak frontal boundary over northern North Carolina will lift
back north as a warm front late tonight into Tuesday. A more
pronounced cold front will cross the region on Wednesday,
followed by a period of dry weather Thursday and Friday under
the influence of high pressure.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
As of 845 PM EDT Monday...

Weak frontal boundary remains just S and SW of the FA late this
eve. Earlier SHRAS and tstms have drifted SW out of the FA the
past few hours. That front will begin to pull back NNE late
tonight (into central sections of the FA)...as it does
so...SE winds will aid in spread lower level cloudiness over
most of the local area. Expecting SHRAS and possible ISOLD tstms
to begin to move back NE overnight...though w/ heating
done...stability will take over the eventually limit any tstms
(after midnight). Highest PoPs W and SW (30-60%) w/ 20-40% PoPs
spreading ENE after midnight...but not quite to the lower MD ern
shore. Lows fromthe u50s-l60s on the ern shore to the m-u60s
elsewhere.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 330 PM EDT Monday...

The front will continue to move northward on Tuesday. This will
likely allow for a dry period at least across the W in the morning.
However, a lee side trough develops during the afternoon. This,
combined with a weak upper wave moving through the W-NW flow aloft
will allow for a line of storms to develop across northern VA and
perhaps impact the far northern part of the forecast area late
Tuesday afternoon. The winds aloft are in the 35-40kt range
Tuesday afternoon, which may be just enough for some strong wind
gusts with any thunderstorm Tuesday afternoon. SPC has placed
northern VA into a marginal risk for severe thunderstorms, and
this just clips the northern neck and Caroline and Louisa
Counties.

This line of showers/storms will move through the forecast area
Tuesday evening and will likely diminish after sunset due to loss of
daytime heating. A more pronounced period of showers and storms
are expected late Tue night into Wednesday as the cold front
approaches the area and slowly moves through the area on
Thursday. Best chances for showers/storms will be Wed afternoon
due to height falls aloft and decreasing stability along the
frontal zone. There is a marginal risk for severe storms on
Wednesday across the entire area, but the best chance for any
severe weather will likely be across the far southern tier where
the best instability will occur.

The tropical moisture will finally be scoured out with this front,
and Thursday looks to be dry with much lower dew points as high
pressure builds across the region from the NW.

Highs each day will continue in the mid 80s, although Thursday will
be much less humid. Lows continue muggy in the upper 60s/low 70s
until Wed night which will see low-mid 60s. &&

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 320 PM EDT Monday...

A strong surface ridge and northwest flow aloft with the upper
ridge axis to the west over the Mississippi Valley will provide
dry weather with moderate temperatures for the beginning of the
extended forecast. Expect highs in the low to mid 80s Friday and
the mid to upper 80s on Saturday. Overnight lows in the low to
mid 60s Thursday night and mid to upper 60s Friday night. But
the upper ridge will erode through the holiday weekend with a
gradual increase in moisture as it appears that another area of
low pressure will form in the northeastern Gulf of Mexico by
Sunday and push more tropical moisture northward into the
region. This could allow for more showers and tropical downpours
for Sunday and again on Monday. The big model difference in the
models is the handling of a backdoor cold front between the 12z
GFS and ECMWF with the GFS pushing the front south through the
area and the ECMWF keeping the boundary well north of the area.
In either case, the chance for showers and some possibly heavy
rainfall exist for the second half of the Holiday weekend. If
the GFS is right with the front Monday could be a damp cool
rainy day while the ECMWF would lead to more periodic showers
with some breaks. At this time of year, seems more likely the
for the front to hang north of the area. So have kept the
temperatures up more in the low to mid 80s for Sunday and
Monday.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 845 PM EDT Monday...

Weak frontal boundary remains just S and SW of the FA late this
eve. Earlier SHRAS and tstms have drifted SW out of the FA the
past few hours. That front will begin to pull back NNE late
tonight (into central sections of the FA)...as it does
so...SE winds will aid in spread lower level cloudiness over
most of the local area. Right now...VFR NE half of the local
area...IFR-MVFR CIGS SW. Winds becoming SE over the local area
overnight will lead to increased coverage of IFR-MVFR CIGS...and
even possibly 2-4SM FG...esp near the front as it moves back NE.
Added VCSH to all sites but SBY. Continued IFR-MVFR CIGS Tue
morning...then local area enters warm sector w/ SCT-BKN CU and
possible SHRAS-tstms in the afternoon/eve.

Mainly afternoon/eve SHRAS/tstms are possible Wed as a cold
front crosses the local area. Sfc hi pres looks to build in
from the N by Thu and Fri bringing mainly VFR conditions during
the end of the week.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 330 PM EDT Monday...

A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for the Lower Chesapeake
Bay and the Lower James River. Observations continue to show a
persistent east wind of around 15 knots with gusts in excess of of
20 knots at times. Choppy conditions can also be expected in these
locations with waves of 2 to 4 feet. Winds and waves should begin to
diminish after sunset.

A weak boundary slowly lifts north of the waters overnight and into
Tuesday. Winds will turn to the SE and then S or SW as the boundary
lifts to the north. Winds Tuesday will range from 5 to 15 knots,
with seas of 2 to 3 feet and waves of 1 to 2 feet. A cold front
crosses the region on Wednesday and turns the winds to the W and NW
around 5 to 10 knots through Thursday morning. High pressure builds
into the area Thursday through Friday leading to generally tranquil
marine conditions.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
As of 1115 AM EDT Monday...

Flood warnings continue for the James and Appomattox River
basins. Mattoax is now forecast reach moderate flooding by early
Wednesday morning. Warnings also continue for the Meherrin and
Nottoway rivers (at Stony Creek), as well as portions of the
Chowan Basin. Additional flood warnings continue for the
Chickahominy, South Anna and Mattaponi rivers, as well as the
Pocomoke River in MD. See FLWAKQ or FLSAKQ for more details.

&&

.CLIMATE...
As of 355 AM EDT Monday...

* RIC monthly rainfall total through 5/20 remains at 8.84"
  (already ranks as 5th wettest May on record). (precipitation
  records date back to 1880)

* SBY monthly rainfall total through 5/20 is now 8.52" (already
  ranks as 3rd wettest May on record). (precipitation records
  date back to 1906)

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/MRD
NEAR TERM...ALB/MRD
SHORT TERM...MRD
LONG TERM...ESS
AVIATION...ALB/LKB
MARINE...AJB
HYDROLOGY...AKQ
CLIMATE...AKQ



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