Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS61 KALY 261032
AFDALY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
632 AM EDT Thu Apr 26 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
An upper level disturbance will continue to allow for a few
showers over the high terrain today, otherwise, it will remain
mostly cloudy and cool. After dry weather tonight, more rainfall
is expected on Friday into Friday night with continued cool
conditions.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
An upper level disturbance and two low pressure systems will be
converging on the forecast area today. The northern of the two
lows will track across southern Canada, and northern New York,
while the second low tracks from the southeast New York into
central New England. These two areas of low pressure will merge
across northern New England and the Canadian Maritimes later
today. This will keep scattered showers across the northern
portions of the region today. Drier weather is expected tonight
as high pressure briefly builds into the region. Highs today
will be in the 40s to lower 60s with lows tonight in the mid 30s
to mid 40s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
The dry weather will not last long with more rain expected Friday
into Saturday night as yet another low pressure system tracking
across southern Canada will drag a cold front through the region
late Friday night. A lingering trough of low pressure will be across
the region Saturday into Saturday night. Additional rainfall amounts
of a half to three quarters of an inch are expected. Highs on Friday
will be in the upper 40s to upper 50s with lows Friday night in the
upper 30s to mid 40s. Highs on Saturday will be in the upper 40s to
mid 60s with lows Saturday night in the upper 20s to around 40. It
will be cold enough Saturday night for some light snow accumulation
mainly across the southern Adirondacks.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
It looks like we will close out April with seasonably cool
temperatures as a large upper level trough gradually shifts through
our area Sunday and Monday. This will result in cloudy, cool
conditions with some lingering showers Sunday into Sunday night.
Some high terrain locations may even see some snow showers
overnight.

Monday will serve as a transition period as the upper level trough
exits to our east. No showers are expected but temperatures will
remain seasonably cool with decreasing clouds throughout the day.

May will arrive with summer-like temperatures as surface and upper
level ridging builds into the eastern CONUS through mid-week. An
unseasonably warm airmass arrives by Tuesday, leading to
temperatures climbing into the mid 70s. Highs on Wednesday and
potentially Thursday will make a run at the 80 degree mark, typical
highs for the end of June. Though, it doesn`t look like new record
highs will be reached as the current Albany records of 86 and 88
degrees were set in 2001. Model 850 mb temps rise to +12C to +14C
for the mid-week period, which is +1 to +2 standard deviations above
normal. In regards to precipitation chances, it looks like the first
half of the week will remain dry before a potential back-door front
arrives Wednesday night.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Low level clouds and fog will continue to lift throughout the
morning, allowing for flight conditions to improve to VFR by
mid afternoon and continue through the end of the forecast
period.

Light and variable winds will increase from the westerly
direction with gusts over 20kts this afternoon.

Outlook...

Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Friday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Saturday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Saturday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Sunday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
An upper level disturbance will continue to allow for a few
showers over the high terrain today, otherwise, it will remain
mostly cloudy and cool. After dry weather tonight, more rainfall
is expected on Friday into Friday night with continued cool
conditions.

Relative humidity values will drop to 45 to 85 percent this
afternoon, recover to 70 to 90 percent tonight, and drop to 50
to 75 percent Friday afternoon.

Winds will be west at 5 to 15 mph with gusts up to 25 mph this
afternoon, west winds of 10 to 15 mph this evening will
diminish to 5 mph after midnight. Winds will be south to
southeast around 5 mph on Friday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
River rises at Hope from combination of 2 inches of rain and
snowmelt and possibly upstream releases resulted in a fast rise.
Expectations are that HOPN6 will slowly fall today as the bulk
of the rain has ended temporarily.

A few more showers are also possible today as an upper level
disturbance moves across the area. After a period of dry
weather on Thursday night, more rainfall is expected on Friday,
Some additional light rain showers are possible on Saturday and
Sunday, but dry weather will then return for early next week.
Total additional rainfall through Saturday night will generally
be half an inch to three quarters of an inch.

This rainfall will lead to some minor rises on rivers and
streams, with some rivers approaching or exceeding action
stage. However, not much additional flooding is anticipated at
this time, as rainfall amounts (and mountain snowmelt) looks
limited enough to prevent any additional problems at this time
other than perhaps at RVRN6 and HIKN6 where minor flooding is
possible based on the latest MMEFS guidance.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including
observed and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please
visit the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs
on our website.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Frugis/11
NEAR TERM...11
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...JVM
AVIATION...JVM
FIRE WEATHER...Frugis/11
HYDROLOGY...Frugis/11



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.