Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

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FXUS61 KGYX 271619
AFDGYX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
1219 PM EDT Sun May 27 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Cool high pressure will build in from the northeast and hold
across the region into Monday with plenty of clouds expected.
High pressure will shift east late Monday and Monday night as a
weak warm front approaches from the west. A cold front will drop
south through the region by Tuesday morning. High pressure will
build over the region Tuesday and will push offshore south of
New England Wednesday. Low pressure may bring appreciable
rainfall to the region Friday into the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...

1219 PM...Minor ESTF update to reflect the 16z mesonet in near
grids.

Prev disc...
908 AM...For this ESTF update...I made minor adjustments to
near term grids to reflect GOES cloud trends as well as the
current mesonet. I adjusted pops up slightly near the NH/MA
border area for later today.


Prev disc...
630 am...Pops lowered below 10% thru a good chunk of the morning
across all of the CWA, as front has pushed to the S and W of the
CWA, and there is little in the way of forcing. That wave
passing to our south later today could push showers into
southern zones this afternoon. Otherwise, the cool and cloudy
day is expected as advertised.

Previously...Looks like sfc cold front has made thru all but
Cheshire county as of 07Z, but should move thru there very
shortly. The rain showers across srn NH, should start to
diminish as they continue to slowly shift S and E thru the early
morning. While the threat for showers across the srn tier of NH
counties will be around thru today, it will be minimal thru
most of the day, increasing only late in the day. Most of the
CWA should stay cloudy thru the day as the onshore flow takes
hold, but should stay dry, as airmass above the marine inversion
remains very dry. The exception will be the NE zones, which
will see partly sunny conds, especially into early to mid
afternoon. Temps in the NE will be the warmest with highs in the
low to mid 60s, although thanks to downsloping on the easterly
flow, spots int the CT vly could be this warm as well, with some
breaks of sun possible here, too. Otherwise highs will be in
the mid to upper 50s, which is pretty much where temps are now.

May see some showers move into SW coastal ME late today as a
weak sfc low passes to our south.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
As the sfc low to our south shifts east, the flow will diminish
and the well-mixed inversion will drop and become more stable.
So, could see some DZ overnight on the coastal plain and into
the foothills. Will likely see some patchy fog as well, as Tds
start to rise, and temps fall off into the 40s.

Monday will see some slight improvement, especially in the
afternoon, once the fog and drizzle diminish during the
morning. The weak gradient flow becomes more SW, which could
allow some warmer air in away from the coast, as well as some
breaks of sun. On the coast, any SW flow will be too weak to
shift the flow offshore, and clouds and cool temps will linger
thru the day. Highs will be warmer, ranging from around 60 on
the coast to 70-75 inland.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A cold front will cross the region Monday night with the chance
of showers mainly across northern and central zones. Canadian
high pres then builds southeast into the region Tuesday through
Thursday with warming temperatures expected. Thereafter, models
indicating the remnants of Alberto move into the Ohio valley
and then possibly into the northeast toward the weekend. Some
much needed rainfall is possible Friday and into the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Short Term...DEspite onshore flow will see VFR cigs for the most
part today. This will change as all but KHIE, and maybe KLEB,
degrade to IFR or lower tonight in low cigs, fog, and some DZ
near the coast. IFR likely to linger into part of Monday
morning, with improvement to VFR inland terminals during the
afternoon.

Long Term...Scattered MVFR conditions in the mountains and
foothills Mon night with a FROPA otherwise VFR through Thu.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term...Have extended the SCA thru today. At some during
the afternoon the winds will fall below SCA criteria, but seas
will remain up thru tonight, so SCA will transitions to haz seas
for the overnight.

Long Term...No flags.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Moist onshore flow will continue into Monday. The rest of the
week looks warm, with light winds, and moderate humidity.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
NH...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for ANZ150-
     152-154.

&&

$$

ES



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