091
FXUS64 KJAN 050333
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
1033 PM CDT Sat May 4 2024

...New MESOSCALE UPDATE...

.MESOSCALE UPDATE...
Issued at 1030 PM CDT Sat May 4 2024

Rest of tonight...

Evening RAP analysis/GOES East water vapor imagery westerly flow
aloft across the region, with dwindling rain chances. Stronger
shortwave ascent is again leading to ascent & GOES East infrared
imagery indicate MCS/cold cloud tops across the southern Plains.
PWs have come up across the region but most convection has died
down. Clouds will gradually fill in from the west, with rain after
daybreak, but moist southeasterly boundary layer flow will pick up
before then. Lows will fall into the mid-upper 60s, with
crossover temps not as as much as last night & focused more into
southern-southeast MS. This pattern supports low stratus & dense
fog developing overnight across the Hwy 84 to I-59 corridors. HREF
probs >15-30% expanding up to near the I-20 corridor, but some
concerns with clouds lingering & high clouds later decrease some
confidence. Convective allowing models (CAMs) indicate potential
for areas of dense fog across the Pine Belt, mainly focused along
& southeast of a line from Lincoln, Lawrence, Simpson, Smith,
Jasper & Clarke counties in MS. Added a "Limited" in HWO graphics
for patchy dense fog. Can`t rule out it expanding further north &
being more areal coverage. Some HREF probs are hitting pretty
hard in the 35-50% range in the Jefferson Davis to Jones & Marion
to Forrest corridor. Held off on any "Elevated" or dense fog
advisory for now. Updates are out. /DC/

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 253 PM CDT Sat May 4 2024

Tonight through Sunday...Isolated showers/storms will be possible
into the early evening hours, but will dissipate with skies
becoming partly cloudy overnight. A short wave will move into the
area on Sunday with more scattered showers/storms Sunday afternoon
and evening. With decent instability, afternoon heating and at least
some flow, strong to possibly severe storms will be possible mainly
for areas along and north of the Natchez Trace Corridor. A graphic
has already been issued for this potential. Highs will range from
around 80 in the west to the upper 80s in the east. The storms will
move east of the area during the evening hours. /15/

Monday through Saturday:

As a closed low pressure system cuts off over the Northern High
Plains through the early part of the work week, upper-level flow
over the Southern CONUS will increase. Ripples in the flow
interacting with a warm, moist air mass over the Gulf Coast will
continue to support mainly diurnal showers and thunderstorms through
midweek. Thursday into Friday, ridging over the eastern CONUS is
expected to flatten and allow for shortwave energy to eject east
across the Midwest and Great Lakes region. A cold front pushing
south into our forecast area during this time frame will be a focus
for additional shower and thunderstorm activity, eventually yielding
to cooler and drier air with high pressure coming out of the Plains.
/NF/

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 753 PM CDT Sat May 4 2024

Other than a few storms on the edges of the area in the northwest
MS and southern MS, expect dissipation over the next hour or so.
Some MVFR vsby due to BR are psbl around the area, with LIFR low
stratus/dense fog expected overnight at HBG/PIB & psbl at MEI.
Onset timing looks to be around 05/08-10Z before lifting to VFR
flight categories around 05/14-15Z. Light southerly sfc winds
will persist, sustained up to 10mph & brief higher gusts up to
15mph. Some light SHRA & iso TSRA are psbl Sunday aftn, with
highest confidence for introduction at GLH & GWO for the 00Z TAF
cycle. There are low probs at GTR, JAN, HKS & HEZ after 05/20-21Z
through the end of the period. /DC/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       65  84  67  86 /  20  50  30  30
Meridian      64  88  65  88 /  20  50  30  30
Vicksburg     66  83  66  86 /  10  50  30  30
Hattiesburg   66  88  68  88 /  20  30  10  20
Natchez       66  83  66  86 /  20  50  20  30
Greenville    67  80  68  84 /  10  60  60  30
Greenwood     66  83  67  85 /  10  70  60  40

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

DC/NF/DC