Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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FXUS64 KMAF 221946
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
246 PM CDT Tue May 22 2018

.DISCUSSION...
Expansive CU field observed in visible imagery with near
homogeneous surface Td with no surface boundary present. Clouds
are so much so that are limiting SB heating and thus we have
trended down PoPs a few points for remainder of the PM across the
PB. Backed flow thru 7H indicates that low-level mstr will
continue to remain in the mtns today, a far wwd position for this
time of yr. Water vapor does show the mid-level mst axis is moving
e leaving steep LR`s. This with se flow thru about 750mb does
favor storms developing in or INVOF mtns. Storms will then be
favored to slowly move newd. Initially GDP Mtns area is favored
then SE NM and Van Horn-Davis Mtns. Pretty good agreement between
NAM12/NAM4K on this scenario and we will concentrate mostly high
end sct PoPs in these areas into the evening. Strong to possibly
severe multi- cell storms are supported by ML CAPES around 2000
J/KG, 0-6km bulk shear 20-25kts and 25-30 degree T-Td spreads thru
early- mid evening. NAM12 suggests precip will move into the PB
between 12Z- 18Z Wed? We are not optimistic this will happen
largely because it is not the typical scenario for this time of yr
and the NAM4K dissipates precip as it moves into PB, a more
common scenario. This scenario feeds back into the convective
potential on Wed PM, NAM12 leaves more stable conditions in wake
of exiting precip while NAM4KM rather robustly develops storms
during peak heating along mtns from GDP Mtns to between Davis and
Chisos Mtns, to near Pecos River. So again we will have scattered
PoPs INVOF/just e of the mtns. Mid-level ridging/weakening flow
aloft will be the set- up on Thur and mostly isold-slight chance
PoPs warranted across the w again. As aforementioned ridge
develops and persists temps will start to soar again 1st across
the w on Fri, but expanding into PB over the weekend into early
next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     66  90  67  92 /  10  20  10  10
Carlsbad                       63  89  63  93 /  60  40  20  20
Dryden                         68  89  68  93 /  10  10  10  10
Fort Stockton                  66  89  66  92 /  10  30  20  20
Guadalupe Pass                 63  86  63  88 /  60  30  20  20
Hobbs                          62  86  62  90 /  50  30  20  20
Marfa                          57  87  56  89 /  30  20  20  30
Midland Intl Airport           67  90  68  93 /  20  20  10  10
Odessa                         67  90  68  93 /  20  20  10  10
Wink                           66  92  66  95 /  30  30  20  20

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$



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