Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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FXUS62 KMHX 191712
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
112 PM EDT Thu Apr 19 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will cross the area this afternoon. High pressure
will build north of the region Friday through the weekend. Slow
moving low pressure will impact the area early to mid next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
As of 100 PM Thursday...The cold front is crossing nrn tier and
will cont to push thru the rest of the region next few hrs. Sct
to bkn scu had developed inland and will push E with front.
Models cont to back off on any precip and based on this now
just showing some sprinkles near OBX per latest HRRR. Temps have
warmed into the upr 70s and lower 80s...except for NE cst where
have quickly dropped into the upr 50s/low 60s behind front.
Expect current gusty WSW winds to become WNW thru the aftn and
may increase a bit later inland per mdls showing strong winds
after about 20Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
As of 415 AM Thursday...The cold front should push offshore by
00Z with strong CAA to kick in as dewpoints crash into the lower
30s with chilly low temperatures ranging from the upper 30s well
inland to the low/mid 40s coast. Winds will be remain gusty near
the coast, but should diminish somewhat inland overnight.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 4 AM Thurs...

Friday through Sunday... Sfc high will build into the region from
the northwest Friday through Sunday. While to the west, an mid/upper
level low will move across the Southern Plains/Lower MS Valley,
while at the sfc an area of low pressure develops over the Gulf
States. Expect mostly sunny with cool temperatures through Saturday,
then Sunday an increase of clouds ahead of the low pressure system.
Expect highs in the 60s with temperatures increasing 3-4 degree each
day. Friday night will be a chilly night for this time of year,
expect overnight lows around 40 degrees inland to mid/upper 40s
along the Outer Banks. Saturday night, expect lows in the low/mid
40s inland and mid/upper 40s coast, then Sunday night, lows in the
mid/upper 40s inland to low/mid 50s coast.

Monday through Wednesday... The 00z models have a general consensus
with the sfc low developing over the Gulf States and lifting towards
the Carolinas Tues/Wed., but aloft the models don`t have a good
handle with the upper level cut-off low. Therefore, uncertainty
remains with the timing of the sfc low and strength/track of cut-off
low aloft. With the models in agreement with timing of the precip,
have decreased PoPs slightly Monday, but kept 30-50% PoPs Tues/Wed.
The warming trends continues through Wednesday with highs in the
upper 60s/low 70s inland and low/mid 60s Outer Banks.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Short Term /Through Friday/...
As of 1 PM Thursday...High confidence in VFR conditions through
this TAF cycle. Cold front will cross next cpl hours with sct to
bkn high based Cu then mainly clear skies expected later today
thru Fri as high pres builds in from the NW. Gusty WNW winds
expected into the evening then shld subside to less then 15
kts. N winds may gust 15 to 20 kts late morn to early aftn Fri.

Long Term /Friday Night through Monday/...
As of 330 AM Thurs...VFR conditions will dominate the TAF
period. High pressure will build in from the north Friday night
through Sunday. An increase of high to mid clouds will filter
into the region, ahead of a low pressure system coming from the
Gulf States.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term /Today and Tonight/...
As of 100 PM Thursday...Decided to issue SCA for rivers and
Albemarle Sound this aftn into tonight for gusty winds assoc
with fropa. The NW to N winds may stay up well into the night
for Albemarle. Otherwise no changes to headlines.

Prev disc...S/SW winds remain gusty at daybreak with gusts to
33 knots at Diamond Buoy and 31 knots at the buoy 17 miles south
of Ocracoke. Frequent gusts to gale force are likely,
especially central waters through this afternoon, although gale
conditions may be a bit marginal south of Ocracoke. No change to
current Gale Warnings/SCA at this time.

Seas currently 2-5 feet over the northern waters, but up to 8
feet well offshore of the southern waters. The increasing winds
will build seas to as high as 7-9 feet later today into
tonight, especially over the outer periphery of the marine
zones.

Long Term /Friday through Monday/...
As of 330 AM Thurs...NW winds 15-20 knots Friday morning,
diminishing to N 10-15 knots in the afternoon with seas
subsiding 3- 5 ft over the central and northern waters, and 1-3
ft south. Northerly 5-15 knots will continue Friday night
through Saturday, then winds will slowly veer to the NE/E
Saturday night through Sunday as the high pressure gradually
shifts off the Mid-Atlantic coast. Wind gradient will tighten
Monday as a low pressure system approaches the region from the
Gulf States, expect winds to become ENE 10-20 knots. Seas will
generally be around 2-3 ft through Monday morning, then seas
will gradually build 3-5 ft throughout Monday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
As of 430 AM Thu...West winds gusting to 25 to 30 mph combined
with RH values 30 to 35 percent will create an increased fire
danger This afternoon for all but the immediate coast.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM EDT this evening for AMZ136-
     137.
     Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Friday for AMZ135.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Friday for AMZ130-131.
     Gale Warning until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for AMZ152-154-156.
     Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT Friday for AMZ150-158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RF
NEAR TERM...RF
SHORT TERM...CTC
LONG TERM...BM
AVIATION...RF/BM
MARINE...RF/CTC/BM
FIRE WEATHER...MHX


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