Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Reno, NV

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FXUS65 KREV 212118
AFDREV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Reno NV
218 PM PDT Mon May 21 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure systems will continue to affect the Sierra and
Western Nevada through the work week. The first low moves through
tonight through Tuesday night with another for late in the week.
Showers and afternoon thunderstorms will continue through at least
Friday. Locally heavy rains are possible in any thunderstorms
along with small hail and gusty winds.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
The upper low west of Mercury, NV will slowly move NNE tonight
through Tuesday night with showers and thunderstorms to affect the
region. This evening looks to be the most active with a bit less
activity for Tuesday.

Convection is firing across Central Nevada this afternoon and
moving WNW ahead of an upper wave. There has been clearing ahead
of the broken line of thunderstorms, with new storms firing on the
leading edge of the line. Expect these to continue through 8-9
PM, before the loss of heating results in rapidly diminishing
showers and storms. The best chances this evening will be along
the I-80 and Highway 50 corridors into Mono County. Rainfall
of a tenth to quarter inch in the band with locally higher
amounts.

The upper low is in Eastern Nevada Tuesday with a north flow. The
Sierra will be favored Tuesday, but more likely west of the crest.
Overall scattered showers and storms look likely.

Wednesday that upper low ejects with another upper low now moving
in from off the coast. It is a transition day, but it looks more
active than previously thought. A light SSW flow aloft may bring
the most active area of thunderstorms along the 395 corridor to
points east. Some of these storms cloud be strong if they form on
the convergence of the weak afternoon low level westerlies into
the prevailing south flow. Temperatures will remain near average
the next 2 days.

.LONG TERM...Thursday through Next Monday...
The next upper low then slowly approaches into Friday, and moves
through during the day Saturday (if not sooner). Showers and
thunderstorms are expected Thursday into Friday with areas west of
a Lovelock to Bridgeport line likely to be the most active. Some
of these storms could be strong, especially Friday if there is
enough clearing.

As the low moves through Saturday, scattered showers and
thunderstorms remain possible. Confidence is a bit lower though
as recent simulations show the low ejecting by Saturday afternoon.
Sunday looks dry at this point, but given how the models have been
wishy washy that far out left the going forecast of a slight
chance near the Oregon Border for now. Monday still looks dry as
ridging moves in with warming temps aloft. Temps may be slightly
cooler than normal Thursday into Saturday followed by gradual
warming for Sunday into Monday. X

&&

.AVIATION...

Low pressure centered over southern Inyo County (CA) will drift
towards KLAS tonight. An upper disturbance wrapping around the
northern periphery of the low is bringing widespread showers with
isolated thunderstorms, especially over Pershing, Churchill, and
Mineral Counties...with more scattered showers elsewhere across the
Sierra and western Nevada.

The area of showers and thunderstorms is expected to work westward
to KRNO/KCXP/KMEV this evening, bringing widespread higher terrain
obscuration and areas of MVFR CIGS in -RA/RA. The chance for
thunderstorms at Sierra and far western Nevada terminals is 20-40%,
with any storm capable of bringing brief moderate to heavy rain and
wind gusts to around 30 kts. Showers should wane by late evening and
overnight, although residual VFR cloud decks and areas of higher
terrain obscuration are likely.

Low pressure remains over Nevada on Tuesday, with isolated to
scattered thunderstorms developing in the afternoon. The low pulls
away Wednesday but residual moisture and heating is likely to bring
storms over the Sierra and northeast CA...shifting out into western
Nevada by evening. Storms Tuesday and Wednesday could be a bit
stronger with more frequent lightning, hail to 1/2" (possibly 3/4"
Wednesday) in diameter, and wind gusts 35-45 kts. -Snyder

&&

.REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NV...None.
CA...None.
&&

$$

For more information from the National Weather Service visit...
http://weather.gov/reno



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