Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41
000
FXUS63 KSGF 230505
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1205 AM CDT Wed May 23 2018

...Update to Aviation for 06Z Tafs...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 230 PM CDT Tue May 22 2018

Isolated showers and thunderstorms will quickly diminish this
evening with the loss of daytime heating. The setup does look good
once again for areas of fog as winds will be light and
temperatures fall into the lower to middle 60s.

The combination of weak low level convergence and an approaching
short wave trough from the south will then provide a focus for
scattered showers and thunderstorms on Wednesday. This activity
may actually start to fire late in the morning as forecast
soundings show little in the way of inhibition by 15-16 UTC.
Sounding profiles may support some gusty winds and small hail with
a few of these storms. High temperatures will once again warm
into the lower to middle 80s.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Night through Tuesday)
Issued at 230 PM CDT Tue May 22 2018

A weak southwesterly flow aloft with embedded short wave energy
will then persist into Thursday. Thus, isolated to scattered
showers and thunderstorms are once again expected. Global models
then depict an upper level shear axis setting up over the region
from Friday into the weekend. This will therefore keep the chances
for scattered storms going. Temperatures will remain above normal
with highs generally in the middle to upper 80s.

Shower and thunderstorm chances early next week will then be
highly dependent on the eventual track of a tropical system coming
out of the Gulf of Mexico. At the very least, we should see
increased mid and upper level moisture availability. It also does
appear that the upper level shear axis and perhaps some short wave
energy will also provide a focus for continued thunderstorm
potential. Temperatures will remain above normal although the
extent of mid and upper level cloudiness will likely have an
impact on eventual highs and lows.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
Issued at 1200 AM CDT Wed May 23 2018

Light winds will occur overnight. May see some patchy light fog
early in the morning.

Southeasterly winds will then occur on Wednesday. Scattered
storms are expected to develop across the region. Brief period of
lower flight category and gusty winds could occur with any storm.

Patchy fog may be possible again late Wednesday night into early
Thursday morning.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Schaumann
LONG TERM...Schaumann
AVIATION...Wise



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.