Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

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FXUS64 KSHV 190812
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
312 AM CDT Thu Apr 19 2018

.DISCUSSION...
Cooler, drier air continues to funnel into our region from the
north and west in the wake of a strong cold front which moved
through our region Wed/Wed Night. Sfc ridge axis will move from
west to east across our region today with the ridge having moved
east of our region by tonight. Light northeast winds will be
offset somewhat by increasing mid and high level cloud cover from
the west but still looking at cool overnight mins tonight with
some upper 30s possible across portions of SE OK into SW AR. Cloud
cover will continue increasing during the day Friday with mostly
easterly flow at the sfc with temperatures struggling to reach 70
degrees for daytime highs as returning low level moisture will
have to wait until late Friday Night into Saturday ahead of our
next storm system.

A closed upper trough should move into the Four Corners region of
the country on Friday moving slowly towards the OK/TX Pndl and
into the Western Plains by Sat Morning. Convection should develop
ahead of this upper level feature across NC Texas into Central OK
late Friday Night expanding east of the I-35 Corridor and into our
western zones by Sat Aftn. Best sfc moisture in the form of 60+
degree dewpoints should be located just south of the SW LA coast
into SE TX by 12z Sat and will be slow to return northward during
the day Saturday before a strong cold front moves into our region
from the northwest by 00z Sun. The lack of appreciable heating
ahead of the front on Sat not to mention the inability to advect
the higher dewpoints northward into our region Sat/Sat Night
ahead of the front will result in a much more stable airmass than
what would be needed for a severe thunderstorm threat. SPC`s DAY 3
Outlook shows as much with only general thunderstorms outlooked
across our region during this period. The front will slow its
eastward progress Sat Night across our eastern most zones and for
this reason, we will need to watch for the possibility of
excessive heavy rainfall setting up across portions of Northern
Louisiana into Southern Arkansas during this period. After
coordinating with WPC, a Slight Risk for Excessive Heavy Rain will
exist across our northeast half for late Saturday through early
Sunday where we could see upwards of 1-3 inches before the system
slowly pulls east of our region on Sunday.

Have undercut daytime highs on Sunday into Monday as cloud cover
and cold air advection should keep temps under MOS guidance
values. Another cold front is expected to reinforce the cooler
air in place by late Tue/early Wed of next week. This should be a
dry front as there will be no time for moisture return ahead of
this feature. Temperature should begin to rebound back to near
seasonal normals just beyond this forecast package.

Prelims to follow...13.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  70  45  69  52 /   0   0   0  10
MLU  68  40  69  50 /   0   0   0  10
DEQ  67  38  67  48 /   0   0   0  10
TXK  67  42  66  49 /   0   0   0  10
ELD  66  38  67  48 /   0   0   0  10
TYR  70  46  68  52 /   0   0   0  10
GGG  70  44  69  52 /   0   0   0  10
LFK  74  47  71  55 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

13



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