Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32
000
FXUS65 KTWC 260341
AFDTWC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
840 PM MST Wed Apr 25 2018

.SYNOPSIS...Dry conditions with unseasonably warm daytime
temperatures again Thursday. Increased moisture will then bring
isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms mainly east of
Tucson Friday into Saturday. Dry conditions to return Sunday, with
next week shaping up to be a little cooler and windy at times.

&&

.DISCUSSION...After an afternoon with nearly clear conditions across
southeast Arizona, IR satellite imagery showed scattered cirrus
streaming across the state from the west. The high temperature at
KTUS this afternoon was 95 degs F, or 10 degs F above normal for
this date. We`ll hold onto the above normal temps for the next few
days despite increasing moisture from the south and east. Confidence
continues to increase with regard to thunderstorm potential Friday
and Saturday, especially east of Tucson. Thereafter, we`ll get a
little reprieve as temperatures fall to near or below normal levels
early next week. No updates needed this evening. The remaining
sections address the forecast in further detail.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid through 27/06Z.
FEW-SCT cirrus clouds into Thursday becoming BKN by the end of the
period. SFC wind variable in direction mainly less than 10 kts
tonight and early Thursday. Winds Thursday afternoon will generally
have a westerly component with speeds less than 12 kts. Aviation
discussion not updated for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Light winds and dry conditions into early
Thursday, then increased moisture from the east brings a slight
chance of thunderstorms over the White Mountains Thursday afternoon
and evening. Sufficient moisture for isolated to scattered mainly
afternoon and evening thunderstorms from Tucson eastward Friday into
Saturday.

The main concern Friday into Saturday is thunderstorms capable of
starting fires and producing strong outflow winds, especially in the
higher terrain where development is more likely. Dry conditions will
then prevail Sunday into Tuesday.

20-foot winds terrain driven less than 15 mph through Thursday.
Gusty east to southeast winds from Tucson eastward Friday morning
should occur before potentially gusty thunderstorm outflows Friday
afternoon into Saturday. Gusty south to southwest winds are on tap
Saturday into Monday. Critical fire conditions may return Monday and
Tuesday particularly across mountains from Tucson southward and
southeastward into Santa Cruz/Cochise Counties.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...The main weather story will be the
increase in moisture and the chance of showers and thunderstorms
Friday and Saturday. Latest models were in good agreement with
spreading mid-level moisture into eastern sections of Arizona by
Friday and more so on Saturday. This increase in moisture combined
with daytime surface heating will result in isolated to scattered
showers and thunderstorms, mainly in the afternoon and evening hours
on Friday and Saturday. The best chance for showers and
thunderstorms will be east of Tucson and mainly in the mountains.
Thereafter, a low pressure system entering the Pacific Northwest
will push this moisture east of the area Sunday with rain chances
ending. A secondary system will impact the region early next week
bringing windy conditions and slightly cooler daytime temperatures.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...YouTube...and at weather.gov/Tucson



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.