Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Boston, MA

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FNUS71 KBOX 230419
FWSBOX

Spot Forecast for Lewis Trail...USFWS
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
1219 AM EDT Mon Apr 23 2018

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0600 EDT on April 23.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...
High pressure will be over the area during Monday morning and
then slowly drift southeast of New England Monday evening into
Tuesday.

Winds will be generally light with a southerly sea breeze
becoming established around midday.

The minimum relative humidity will range from 30 to 35 percent
Monday near the fire site.

Outlook...Will remain dry through Tuesday. Relative humidity will
recover to between 75 and 80 percent Monday night and lower to
between 40 and 50 percent on Tuesday. Winds will be light from the
south.

.TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (0-5 percent).
CWR.................0 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 57.
Min humidity........35 percent.
Dewpoint............29.
Min apparent temp...37.
Surface winds.......Light winds becoming south 5 to 8 mph in the
                    afternoon.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming south 5 to 8 mph in the
                    afternoon.
Mixing height.......400-1600 ft AGL increasing to 1900-3500 ft AGL
                    in the late morning and afternoon, then
                    decreasing to 1400 ft AGL late in the
                    afternoon.
Transport winds.....Northeast 6 to 7 mph shifting to the south 6 to
                    9 mph in the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor to fair (1800-17400 knot-ft).
LVORI...............3.
ADI.................5 increasing to 20 in the late morning and
                    afternoon.
Haines Index........4 to 5 OR or low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth to or moderate potential
                    for large plume dominated fire growth.
CEILING (KFT).......25.

TIME (EDT)      6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Temp............39  41  46  49  52  55  56  57  57  57  56  55
Dewpoint........28  28  29  29  30  30  30  30  30  30  31  31
RH..............64  59  51  46  43  38  37  35  35  35  38  40
Heat index (F)..37  39  45  48  52  55  56  57  57  57  56  55
20 FT wind dir..N   N   N   NE  E   E   E   SE  S   S   S   S
20 FT wind spd..3   3   3   3   3   3   5   6   7   7   8   8
20 FT wind gust.6   6   6   6   6   6   7   7   8   9   9   10
Surface wnd dir.N   N   N   NE  E   E   E   SE  S   S   S   S
Surface wnd spd.3   3   3   3   3   3   5   6   7   7   8   8
Surface wnd gst.6   6   6   6   6   6   7   7   8   9   9   10
Mix hgt (kft)...0.4 0.5 0.7 1.6 2.6 3.5 3.2 3.0 2.8 2.3 1.9 1.4
Transp wind dir.N   NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  E   SE  S   S   S   S
Transp wind spd.6   7   7   7   6   6   6   6   7   7   8   9
LVORI...........3   3   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2
ADI.............3   7   7   15  18  24  19  18  21  19  19  17
Haines index....5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   4   4
VRate kt-ft/10002   3   4   10  13  17  16  15  17  14  13  11
Ceiling (kft)...25  25  25  25  25  25  25  25  25  25  25  25

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly clear (5-15 percent).
CWR.................0 percent.
Min temperature.....Around 37.
Max humidity........79 percent.
Dewpoint............30 increasing to 33 around midnight.
Min apparent temp...38.
Surface winds.......South winds 5 to 7 mph in the evening becoming
                    light.
Wind (20 ft)........South winds 5 to 7 mph in the evening becoming
                    light.
Mixing height.......200-1100 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....South 2 to 8 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (300 knot-ft).
LVORI...............3.
ADI.................7 decreasing to 1 early in the morning.
Haines Index........4 to 5 OR or low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth to or moderate potential
                    for large plume dominated fire growth.
CEILING (KFT).......25.

TIME (EDT)      6 PM         10 PM        2 AM
Sky (%).........1            3            8
Weather cov.....
Weather type....NONE         NONE         NONE
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0            0            0
Temp............53           45           40
Dewpoint........30           32           33
RH..............41           60           76
Heat index (F)..53           44           40
20 FT wind......S 7G9        S 3G5        S 2G3
Surface wind....S 7G9        S 3G5        S 2G3
Mix hgt (ft)....1100         300          200
Transport wind..S 8          S 6          S 3
LVORI...........2            3            4
ADI.............11           3            2
Haines index....4            5            5
VRate kt-ft/10008            2            1
Ceiling (kft)...25           25           25

.TUESDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (25-35 percent).
CWR.................0 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 54.
Min humidity........53 percent.
Dewpoint............30 increasing to 40.
Max apparent temp...54.
Surface winds.......Light winds becoming south 5 to 8 mph in the
                    late morning and afternoon.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming south 5 to 8 mph in the
                    late morning and afternoon.
Mixing height.......300-1800 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....South 2 to 10 mph increasing to 10 to 12 mph
                    late in the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor to fair (600-18500 knot-ft).
LVORI...............3.
ADI.................3 increasing to 16, then increasing to 25 early
                    in the afternoon decreasing to 15 late in the
                    afternoon.
Haines Index........4 to 5 OR or low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth to or moderate potential
                    for large plume dominated fire growth.
CEILING (KFT).......25 decreasing to 20 late in the afternoon.

TIME (EDT)      6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
Sky (%).........23     30     20     21     35     45
Weather cov.....
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0      0      0      0      0      0
Temp............40     45     50     54     54     53
Dewpoint........31     29     35     38     39     39
RH..............70     53     56     54     57     59
Heat index (F)..40     45     48     54     54     53
20 ft wind......S 2    S 2    S 5    S 7    S 8    S 8
20 ft wind gust.3      3      7      9      13     12
Surface wind....S 2    S 2    S 5    S 7    S 8    S 8
Surface wnd gst.3      3      7      9      13     12
Mix hgt (ft)....300    500    1300   1700   1800   1300
Transport wind..S 2    S 3    S 7    S 9    S 12   S 10
LVORI...........3      2      2      2      2      2
ADI.............1      4      11     20     27     17
Haines index....5      5      5      5      5      4
VRate kt-ft/10001      2      8      14     19     12
Ceiling (kft)...25     25     25     25     20     20

$$
Forecaster...Thompson
Requested by...Dave Walker
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 1807344.0/BOX
.DELDT 04/23/18
.EMAIL david_walker@fws.gov



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