896
FNUS71 KCTP 030922
FWSCTP

Spot Forecast for SW Reservoir...USFS
National Weather Service State College PA
522 AM EDT Fri May 3 2024

Forecast is based on ignition time of 1000 EDT on May 03.

If conditions become unrepresentative, or if you have questions or
concerns with this forecast, contact the National Weather Service
in State College.


.DISCUSSION...
Dry conditions this morning followed by an increasing chance for
rain this afternoon through tonight. Cloudy and noticeably cooler
to start the weekend with periods of rain/showers into Sunday.


.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/Weather.........Partly sunny (60-70 percent). Slight chance of
                    showers and thunderstorms late in the
                    afternoon. Chance of showers and thunderstorms
                    late in the afternoon.
LAL.................No Tstms until 1500, then 9-15 strikes until
                    1600, then 16-25 strikes.
Max Temperature.....Around 80.
Min Humidity........33 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........South winds 5 to 10 mph. Gusty and erratic winds
                    expected near thunderstorms.
Mixing Height.......5500 ft AGL.
Transport Winds.....South 10 mph.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
LVORI...............2.
ADI.................22 to 29.

TIME (EDT)          10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%)...........  60  62  63  65  66  64  62  59
Weather Cov.......                      SCH CHC CHC
Weather Type......                      RW  RW  RW
Tstm Cov..........                      SCH CHC CHC
LAL...............  1   1   1   1   1   3   4   4
Temp..............  65  69  74  76  78  80  79  78
RH................  50  45  38  36  33  34  35  37
20 FT Wind Dir....  S   S   S   S   S   S   SE  SE
20 FT Wind Spd....  7   6   6   5   5   5   5   5
20 FT Wind Gust...  10  10  7   7   7   7   7   7
Mix Hgt (kft).....  1.6 1.8 2.9 3.9 4.8 5.5 4.7 4.4
Transp Wind Dir...  S   S   S   S   S   S   SW  S
Transp Wind Spd...  13  12  10  9   9   9   9   8
LVORI.............  2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2
ADI...............  22  22  28  28  28  29  29  29
Haines Index......  5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5

.TONIGHT...

Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (75-85 percent). Chance of
                    thunderstorms in the evening. Rain showers
                    likely through the night. Slight chance of
                    thunderstorms overnight.
LAL.................16-25 strikes until 2400, then 9-15 strikes
                    until 0500, then No Tstms.
Min Temperature.....Around 52.
Max Humidity........90 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming southeast 5 to 10 mph early
                    in the evening. Gusty and erratic winds
                    expected near thunderstorms.
Mixing Height.......800 ft AGL.
Transport Winds.....South 10 mph.
Haines Index........3 to 5 or very low to moderate potential for
                    large plume dominated fire growth.
LVORI...............4.
ADI.................8 to 10.

TIME (EDT)          6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%)...........  65  71  76  79  81  83  85  87  90  91  91  92
Weather Cov.......  CHC CHC CHC LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY
Weather Type......  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm Cov..........  CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH
LAL...............  4   4   4   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   1
Temp..............  75  72  68  64  63  62  61  60  59  58  57  56
RH................  43  51  65  75  81  84  84  87  90  90  90  90
20 FT Wind Dir....  SE  S   SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  S   SE  SE  SE
20 FT Wind Spd....  4   4   6   5   7   7   8   8   8   8   8   8
20 FT Wind Gust...  7   7   10  8   10  10  11  12  13  12  12  12
Mix Hgt (kft).....  3.7 1.3 0.8 0.8 0.9 0.8 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.9 0.8 1.0
Transp Wind Dir...  S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   SE
Transp Wind Spd...  12  12  10  9   12  12  12  12  12  10  10  12
LVORI.............  2   2   3   4   4   4   4   5   5   5   5   5
ADI...............  8   8   8   10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10
Haines Index......  5   5   4   4   4   4   4   4   3   3   3   3

.SATURDAY...

Sky/Weather.........Cloudy (90-100 percent). Rain showers in the
                    morning, then rain likely in the afternoon.
LAL.................No Tstms.
Max Temperature.....Around 59.
Min Humidity........80 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southeast winds 10 mph.
Mixing Height.......1800 ft AGL.
Transport Winds.....Southeast 10 to 20 mph increasing to around 25
                    mph late in the afternoon.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
LVORI...............4.
ADI.................21 to 39.

TIME (EDT)          6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%)...........  93  94  95  94  94  93  93  92  92  92  92  92
Weather Cov.......  DEF DEF LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY CHC CHC CHC CHC
Weather Type......  RW  RN  RN  RN  RN  RN  RN  RN  RN  RN  RN  RN
Tstm Cov..........
LAL...............  1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
Temp..............  55  54  53  54  55  56  57  57  58  58  57  57
RH................  90  90  93  93  93  90  86  86  83  80  83  80
20 FT Wind Dir....  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE
20 FT Wind Spd....  8   9   9   9   9   10  10  10  11  11  11  12
20 FT Wind Gust...  13  13  14  14  14  14  16  16  16  17  17  18
Mix Hgt (kft).....  1.2 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.4 1.5 1.6 1.7 1.8 1.7 1.7 1.6
Transp Wind Dir...  SE  SE  SE  SE  S   SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE
Transp Wind Spd...  14  13  15  16  16  20  20  21  21  22  22  23
LVORI.............  4   4   5   5   5   4   4   4   4   3   4   3
ADI...............  21  21  21  32  32  32  37  37  37  39  39  39
Haines Index......  3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3

$$
Forecaster...Steinbugl
Requested by...Paul Clement
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2413046.0/CTP
.DELDT 05/03/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL paul.clement@usda.gov