National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office

• Home
• Site Map
• News
• Organization
• Search for: NWS All NOAA 

000
FNUS73 KDLH 242118
FWSDLH

Spot Forecast for Moss Lake Unit 3...USFS
National Weather Service Duluth MN
418 PM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0900 CDT on April 25.
If there are questions or concerns with this forecast, or if
conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National
Weather Service in Duluth at 218-729-0653.

.DISCUSSION...

As discussed on the phone, winds will be primarily southerly,
with an occasional SSE wind, especially in the afternoon. Since
the burn site is near a lake, it could remain locally cooler and
slightly more humid than forecast. With the southerly flow,
effects from a weak lake breeze off of Ten Section Lake is not
likely, but is still possible in the afternoon. This could
result in southerly winds weakening at the burn site with even a
rogue wind gust from the north.

.THURSDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (30-40 percent).
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
LAL.................1.
Max temperature.....Around 65.
Min humidity........33 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........South winds 9 to 16 mph.
Mixing height.......2400 ft AGL increasing to 5200 ft AGL in the
                    afternoon.
Transport winds.....South 18 to 25 mph increasing to 28 to 30 mph
                    late in the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Fair (18300-26400 knot-ft) increasing to
                    excellent (125800-135400 knot-ft).
Haines Index........3 to 4 or very low to low potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.
Pcpn amount.........0.00 inches.

TIME (CDT)      9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky cover.......MCR MCR MCR PC  PC  PC  PC  MC  MC
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Chc of pcpn (%).0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
LAL.............1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
Temp............48  53  57  60  62  63  63  64  64
RH..............55  48  43  38  37  34  33  34  34
20 FT wind dir..S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S
20 FT wind spd..9   11  12  13  15  15  16  16  15
20 FT wind gust.16  19  20  21  22  23  23  23  23
Mix hgt (kft)...1.1 1.6 2.4 3.8 4.9 5.1 5.2 5.1 5.2
Transp wind dir.S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S
Transp wind spd.18  20  22  25  25  25  28  29  30
Haines index....4   4   4   4   3   3   3   3   3
SDspl kt-ft/100018  26  46  84  108 111 126 129 135

.THURSDAY NIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (55-65 percent). Chance of rain
                    overnight.
Chance of pcpn......30 percent.
LAL.................1.
Min temperature.....Around 44.
Max humidity........65 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southeast winds 14 to 15 mph with gusts to
                    around 23 mph.
Mixing height.......4700 ft AGL decreasing to 2000 ft AGL early in
                    the evening.
Transport winds.....South 23 to 30 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Excellent (88600-121900 knot-ft) decreasing to
                    fair to good (26800-40700 knot-ft) early in the
                    evening.
Haines Index........3 to 4 or very low to low potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.
Pcpn amount.........0.03 inches.

TIME (CDT)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
Sky cover.......MCLDY  MCLDY  MCLDY  MCLDY  MCLDY  MCLDY
Weather cov.....                            CHANCE CHANCE
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   RAIN   RAIN
Tstm cov........
Chc of pcpn (%).10     10     10     10     30     30
LAL.............1      1      1      1      1      1
Temp............63     59     55     52     49     48
RH..............37     39     47     50     54     56
20 ft wind......S 15   S 13   SE 13  SE 13  SE 13  SE 13
20 ft wind gust.23     23     23     23     23     23
Mix hgt (ft)....4700   2000   1300   1500   1600   1500
Transport wind..S 30   S 23   S 24   S 24   S 25   S 24
Haines index....3      4      4      4      4      4
SDspl kt-ft/1000122    41     27     32     35     32

.FRIDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (75-85 percent). Chance of rain
                    in the morning, then rain in the afternoon.
Chance of pcpn......80 percent.
LAL.................1.
Max temperature.....Around 53.
Min humidity........56 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southeast winds 15 to 16 mph with gusts to
                    around 25 mph.
Mixing height.......1900 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southeast 18 to 26 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Fair to good (29800-36400 knot-ft).
Haines Index........2 to 4 or very low to low potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.
Pcpn amount.........0.08 inches.

TIME (CDT)      6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
Sky cover.......MCLDY  MCLDY  MCLDY  CLOUDY CLOUDY CLOUDY
Weather cov.....CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE DEFNTE DEFNTE
Weather type....RAIN   RAIN   RAIN   RAIN   RAIN   RAIN
Tstm cov........
Chc of pcpn (%).30     50     50     50     80     80
LAL.............1      1      1      1      1      1
Temp............45     46     48     49     50     49
RH..............65     63     64     65     68     72
20 ft wind......SE 15  SE 16  SE 17  SE 17  SE 17  SE 17
20 ft wind gust.23     23     25     25     25     23
Mix hgt (ft)....1700   1600   1700   1900   1900   1900
Transport wind..SE 23  SE 25  SE 23  SE 22  SE 21  SE 20
Haines index....4      3      3      3      2      2
SDspl kt-ft/100034     35     34     35     35     32

$$
Forecaster...Krystal
Requested by...Mike Klick
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2412349.0/DLH
.DELDT 04/24/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL Michael.klick@usda.gov